CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Olaf)…located about 325 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)…is located approximately 172 NM west-northwest of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 415 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Olaf)
OLAF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING…TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
According to the NHC Advisory 6…Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest to north-northwest motion along with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
>>> An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)
Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 13)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone Conson
According to the JTWC…after having maintained intensity while crossing over the smaller Philippine Islands and the Sibuyan Sea, TS 18W has finally succumbed to the influence of terrain and has weakened a bit since the previous fix. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts well defined spiral bands wrapping into a diffuse and disorganized low level circulation center.
Environmental conditions remain favorable with low wind shear, radial outflow with a weak poleward outflow channel developing and warm sea surface temperatures. The only limiting factor at the current time is proximity to land, leading to disruption of the low level circulation.
All model ensemble members for GFS and the majority of the ECMWF members keep the track south of Hainan. Super Typhoon 19W is currently located approximately 600 NM east of TS 18W, and is expected to close within approximately 450 NM, inside the range when binary interaction could be anticipated. However, due to the small size of both systems, binary interaction is not expected at this time.
While the system is back over water, the lingering effects of terrain interaction will limit intensification for the next 12 hours. after 12 hours the system is forecast to steadily intensify under favorable environmental conditions to a peak of 70 knots at 72 hours. Increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures will serve to offset strong westward outflow, leading to a slow weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast period.
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
Sustained 140 knot winds…with gusts to 170 knots (as of Warning Number 12)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts the filling and enlarging of the eye, now estimated at 10 NM wide, likely the result of an eyewall replacement cycle.
Having reached its furthest equatorward point, STY 1W is tracking westward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Some short-term wobble in the track is expected, but overall should average westward. The environment remains highly favorable with low wind shear, good radial
outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.
STY 19W looks to be on a firm westward track, along the south side of a deep ridge to the north, though short-term wobbles about the mean motion vector are expected. Over the next 12 hours the ridge center is forecast to move east to near the 140 longitude and become a bit more elongated northwest-southeast, allowing for STY 19W to turn northwestward by 24 hours. The system is expected to pass close to the northeastern tip of Luzon by 48 hours, but at this point is expected to remain just offshore.
After 72 hours, making landfall along the southeast China coast between 96 and 120 hours. STY 19W is expected to continue weakening over the
next 24 hours, down to 120 knots. The system should re-intensify as it moves over a pool of warm water off the coast of Luzon, reaching a peak of 130 knots by 48 hours.
There’s the possibility of large fluctuations in the intensity over the next 24 to 36 hours. After 72 hours increasing wind shear and decreasing
upper-level outflow will facilitate a fairly rapid weakening trend, accelerating after landfall.
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