CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 15E…located about 365 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)…is located approximately 62 NM south-southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 678 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB
Tropical Cyclone 15E
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY…TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
According to the NHC Advisory 2…The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight, and this motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane on Thursday or Thursday night.
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)
Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 9)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone Conson
According to the JTWC…depicts a ragged appearance, with flaring convection weakly wrapping into a broad low level circulation center
Overall TS 18W lies in a favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and moderate radial outflow with weak poleward outflow into a weak upper level low to the north.
TS 18W is forecast to track northwestward through 48 hours along the western side of the ridge to the east, before the ridge to the north-northeast takes over steering in about 24 hours. After moving through the Manila metro area, the system is expected to move back over water near 36 hours, then shift to a more west-northwest track through the remainder of the forecast.the track has slowed somewhat as it approaches Hainan Island, as the steering pattern weakens and becomes less certain.
After landfall, steady weakening is expected as the system will struggle to maintain a solid low level core over the rugged terrain. Once over water again, the system should slowly intensify to a peak of 65 knots under moderately favorable conditions of low to moderate wind shear, and warm sea water temperatures, offset somewhat by weak easterly flow aloft limiting outflow.
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
Sustained 120 knot winds…with gusts to 145 knots (as of Warning Number 8)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W
According to the JTWC…animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery showed that the system was continuing to intensify with strong convective
hot towers wrapping around a warm spot, in addition satellite imagery depicted the rapid appearance of a well defined, 10 NM wide eye, supporting the onset of very rapid intensification.
TY 19W is forecast to track west-northwest through 24 hours, then turning gradually more northwestward through the remainder of the forecast period as the ridge reorients slightly and a weakness develops in the ridge to the north of Taiwan. As evidenced by the ongoing dramatic improvements in the appearance and structure, the system is undergoing a period of very rapid intensification.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain very favorable for additional rapid intensification, or even extreme intensification, over the next 48 hours. The system will track over very warm waters for the next 24 hours, then move into an area of cooler water. Meanwhile the wind shear remains low, and the small area of radial outflow over the system remains firmly in place.
The rapid intensification prediction aid continues to be triggered through 48 hours. Another period of intensification is expected to a peak of 130 knots at 72 hours as the system moves over another warm sea surface, while the other parameters remain favorable. Thereafter, decreasing sea surface temperatures, and increasing mid-level wind shear will offset the development of a moderate poleward outflow channel, and lead to slow but steady weakening through 120 hours.
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