CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)…is located approximately 252 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 818 NM southeast of Kadena AB
Here’s what the computer models are showing for what’s being referred to as Invest 96E
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just offshore of the coast of Mexico. However, outer rainbands will produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco for the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
>>> A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development, if any, of this system is likely to be slow over the next couple of days while it drifts northward.
By late this week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.t.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)
Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 5)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone Conson
According to the JTWC…depicts the deep convection over the southeast quadrant of the circulation expanding to the entire eastern semicircle as the system makes landfall over Samar.
TS 18W is forecast to continue northwestward on its current track, tracking over Samar and the southeast portion Luzon, eventually crossing 24 NM north of Manila sometime after 48 hours. The system then will reemerge over water, heading west-northwestward towards Hainan Island for the remainder of the
Despite the current favorable environment, TS 18W is only expected to reach an intensity of 65 knots by 12 hours due to landinteraction. The system will continue to weaken over the Philippines until crossing into the South China Sea around 72 hours at 40 knots. At this point, warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear will allow TS 18W to reach an intensity of 80 knots by 120 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 4)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a system that is slowly consolidating with sustained deep convection over the center.
TD 19W is forecast to track generally northwestward along the periphery of the subtropical ridge, turning west-northwestward around 24 hours. The system will continue this track until 72 hours, at which point it will turn northwestward again, as it tracks around the subtropical ridge.
The system is currently in a marginally favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear, offset by an upper-level low to the northwest, which seems to be inhibiting outflow. this marginally favorable environment is expected to persist for the majority of the forecast, allowing steady intensification to 95 knots by 120 hours.
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