Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Flood - Lake Charles, LA Region, United States

    24 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Spassk Dalniy, Primorye - Russia

    48 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Fujin, Heilongjiang - China

    48 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Yichun, Heilongjiang - China

    49 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Alice Springs, Northern Territory - Australia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Newcastle Waters, Northern Territory - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Canary Islands - Spain

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Puerto Quijarro, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of San Carlos, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Trinidad, El Beni - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Astoria, OR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Yasur, Vanuatu

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Rick

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 28 km SSW of Valparaíso, Chile

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - La Palma, Spain

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Sandwich Islands region

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 19 km ENE of Hualien City, Taiwan

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km NE of Ak-Dovurak, Russia

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - South Sandwich Islands region

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 126 km S of Hihifo, Tonga

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Guatemala

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 62 km E of Waitara, New Zealand

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Bogor Regency, West Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Stroms - Semarang Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semisopochnoi, United States

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Maine, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola - North Kivu Province, DRC

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Floods - Davao Oriental Province, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uttarakhand, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Hanoi, Vietnam

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Langila, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Honduras and Nicaragua

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hispaniola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Agen, Aquitaine - France

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kerala, India

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Quang Binh Province, Vietnam

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 year ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
September 30, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)…is located approximately 204 NM south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 03B (Gulab)…is located approximately 359 NM east-northeast of Masirah Island

 

 

North Eastern Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

A broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

>>> Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

This system is moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, and some slow development is possible through early Friday before it reaches an area of stronger upper-level winds.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

North Central Pacific

North western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/20W_010000sair.jpg

Sustained 80 knot winds…with gusts to 100 knots (as of Warning Number 35)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 20W

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a symmetrical system with a large, ragged but defined 50-NM eye. Feeder bands are slowly unraveling and the central convection continued to loosen as convective tops warmed up.

The environment is marginally favorable with low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and medium radial outflow, offset by the influx of near surface cold dry air feeding in from the northwest.

Typhoon Mindulle will continue on its current track for the remainder of the forecast. The environment will slowly degrade with continued cold dry air entrainment and decreasing sea surface temperatures, as the cyclone moves further poleward. Concurrently,  by 36 hours, it will begin extra-tropical transition and by 48 hours will transform into a 50-knot cold core low with an expansive wind field…as it passes 300+ NM to the east of Hokkaido, Japan.

 

 

20210930.140000.WP912021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91W…located approximately 787 NM northeast of Guam

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depict flaring, albeit diminishing, convection sheared 150+ NM to the south-southwest of an exposed, weak, north-south elongated low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates unfavorable conditions for development, with medium equatorward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures being offset by moderate to strong wind shear.

91W is beginning to show some subtropical characteristics and numerical models show little in the way of development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18-22 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Gulab)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/03B_010000sair.jpg

Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 13)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 20W

 

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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