CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 17W…is located approximately 997 NM east of Yokosuka, Japan – Final Warning
An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the system could become a tropical depression around midweek as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 17W – Final Warning
Sustained 25 knot winds…with gusts to 35 knots (as of Warning Number 8)
According to the JTWC…TD 17W has struggled to consolidate due primarily to significant dry air entrainment through the mid- and upper-levels of the
system. Consequently, deep convection is isolated to the southwest quadrant of the system. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery reveals shallow banding wrapping into an elongated, exposed low level circulation center.
TD 17W is forecast to accelerate northeastward through 36 hours, as it rounds the northwest periphery of the ridge. The system will begin to encounter strong wind shear (25 knots) associated with the mid-latitude westerlies, and cooler sea surface temperatures after 24 hours, which will lead to dissipation by 36 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 165 NM southwest of Guam
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals convection cycling over the southwest quadrant of a broad, weakly-defined low-level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development, with robust, dual-channel outflow, low (5-10 knot) wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that 94W will track to the northwest as it intensifies.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13-18 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.