Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - La Palma, Spain

    16 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Canary Islands - Spain

    26 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 19 km ENE of Hualien City, Taiwan

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Hurricane - Rick

    31 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Puerto Quijarro, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    51 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of San Carlos, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    51 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Trinidad, El Beni - Bolivia

    52 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Pittsburg, KS Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 28 km SSW of Valparaíso, Chile

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Lake Charles, LA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Spassk Dalniy, Primorye - Russia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Fujin, Heilongjiang - China

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Yichun, Heilongjiang - China

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Alice Springs, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Newcastle Waters, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Astoria, OR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Yasur, Vanuatu

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Sandwich Islands region

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km NE of Ak-Dovurak, Russia

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - South Sandwich Islands region

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 126 km S of Hihifo, Tonga

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Guatemala

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 62 km E of Waitara, New Zealand

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Bogor Regency, West Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Stroms - Semarang Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semisopochnoi, United States

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Maine, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola - North Kivu Province, DRC

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Floods - Davao Oriental Province, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uttarakhand, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Hanoi, Vietnam

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Langila, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Honduras and Nicaragua

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hispaniola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Agen, Aquitaine - France

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kerala, India

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Quang Binh Province, Vietnam

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 year ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
September 29, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)…is located approximately 543 NM south-southwest of Yokosuka, Japan

 

 

North Eastern Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are gradually becoming less conducive for development.

The low is forecast to meander off the coast of southwestern Mexico today and tonight, and then move slowly toward the west-northwest at about 5 mph away from the coast of Mexico on Thursday and Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

>>> A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development. The low is forecast to meander off the coast of southwestern Mexico today and tonight, and then move slowly toward the west-northwest at about 5 mph away from the coast of Mexico on Thursday and Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

North Central Pacific

North western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/20W_300000sair.jpg

Sustained 100 knot winds…with gusts to 125 knots (as of Warning Number 31)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 20W

According to the JTWC…TY 20W has continued to hold together fairly well. animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a 40 NM wide eye feature, surrounded by a solid band of dense, deep convection. However, microwave imagery showed a gap in the eyewall developing on the west side, and cloud top temperatures have warmed significantly on the eastern side of the system, indicative of a looming breakdown on the eyewall to the east as well.

The overall synoptic environment remains unchanged since the previous forecast, with low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and overall good outflow.

TY 20W has peaked and from here on out will steadily weaken as it moves into a progressively less favorable environment. The system will begin the extra-tropical transition phase by 36 hours, as it begins to interact with the  westerly winds aloft…serving to increase mid-level wind shear.

By about 40 hours, a strong and very distinct tongue of mid-level dry air riding the northwesterly flow will punch its way into the core of TY 20W from the west, erode the tropical core of the system and lead to very rapid weakening.

 

20210929.221000.WP912021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91W…located approximately 1050 NM southeast of Yokosuka, Japan

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery and a microwave image depict flaring convection sheared to the southeast of an exposed low level circulation

Environmental analysis indicates marginal conditions for development, with good equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures being offset by moderate to strong (20-25 knot) northwesterly wind shear flowing outward from TY 20W.

Numerical models show little in the way of development, remaining below warning criteria.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18-22 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

Arabian Sea

20210929.221000.IO032021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.25kts.67p2.1p0.jpg thumbnail

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Remnants of 03B…located approximately 103 NM north of Jafarabad, India

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, the remnants of 03B continues to track across the Gujarat Peninsula and is expected to emerge into the north Arabian Sea in the next 18 to 24 hours. Once offshore, the system is expected to intensify as it moves through an area of low (10-15 knots) wind shear and robust equatorward outflow.

Numerical models are in good agreement that the remnants of 03B will consolidate and track along the coast of Pakistan with intensity at or just below warning criteria.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

 

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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