Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - La Palma, Spain

    9 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Canary Islands - Spain

    18 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 19 km ENE of Hualien City, Taiwan

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Hurricane - Rick

    23 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Puerto Quijarro, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    43 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of San Carlos, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    43 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Trinidad, El Beni - Bolivia

    44 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    55 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Pittsburg, KS Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 28 km SSW of Valparaíso, Chile

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Lake Charles, LA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Spassk Dalniy, Primorye - Russia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Fujin, Heilongjiang - China

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Yichun, Heilongjiang - China

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Alice Springs, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Newcastle Waters, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Astoria, OR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Yasur, Vanuatu

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Sandwich Islands region

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km NE of Ak-Dovurak, Russia

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - South Sandwich Islands region

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 126 km S of Hihifo, Tonga

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Guatemala

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 62 km E of Waitara, New Zealand

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Bogor Regency, West Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Stroms - Semarang Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semisopochnoi, United States

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Maine, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola - North Kivu Province, DRC

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Floods - Davao Oriental Province, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uttarakhand, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Hanoi, Vietnam

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Langila, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Honduras and Nicaragua

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hispaniola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Agen, Aquitaine - France

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kerala, India

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Quang Binh Province, Vietnam

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 year ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
September 28, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)…is located approximately 336 NM west-southwest of Iwo To, Japan

 

 

North Eastern Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower activity.

Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of mainland Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

North Central Pacific

North western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/20W_290000sair.jpg

Sustained 115 knot winds…with gusts to 140 knots (as of Warning Number 27)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 20W

According to the JTWC…while TY 20W has moved into a more favorable environment, animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery shows that it continues to struggle to re-intensify. Over the past six hours, the eye has
steadily shrunk, but it remains cloud covered and ragged, but has
yet to establish an unbroken eyewall. Cold convective bands are beginning to swing around from the south and are providing some hints that a solid eyewall may be about to finally form.

The environment has improved with warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear and good radial outflow. The radial outflow extends about 400 NM west from the center, before turning sharply eastward, with the bulk of the outflow remaining below the 30th latitude before turning equatorward well to the northeast of the center.

Through 12 hours the system will move northward at about 05 knots, then start to pick up speed thereafter as the ridge to the north gets knocked back by an approaching trough. TY 20W will turn northeastward after 24 hours, and put the pedal down, moving rapidly northeast along the strong gradient
between the trough to the west and the ridge to the east.

 

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91W…located approximately 792 NM east-southeast of Iwo To, Japan

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery and a microwave image depict persistent convection offset to the southeastern periphery of an exposed low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates generally favorable conditions for development, with good equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, and low (10-15 knot) wind shear.

Numerical models agree that 91W will track north-northeast over the next several days, but disagree regarding intensification, with NAVGEM showing
intensification but ECMWF and JMA remaining below warning criteria.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

Arabian Sea

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Remnants of 03B…located approximately 70 NM east-northeast of Mumbai

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, the remnants of 03B continue to travel west across the Indian subcontinent through an area of low (10-15 knot) wind shear and robust equatorward outflow. Surface observations indicate weak low level
turning on the northeast side of an area deep convection.

Numerical models are in good agreement that the remnants of 03B will consolidate and intensify as it moves into the north Arabian Sea in the next few days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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