CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)…is located approximately 362 NM southwest of Iwo To, Japan
North Eastern Pacific
A tropical wave is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of the week while the system moves slowly northwestward or northward well offshore of the coast of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
North Central Pacific
North western Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)
Sustained 95 knot winds…with gusts to 115 knots (as of Warning Number 23)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 20W
According to the JTWC…TY 20W has completed or nearly completed an eyewall replacement cycle, with a microwave image confirming the dissipation of the inner eyewall and the development of a much larger, but fragmented eyewall about 75 NM from the center.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts deep convection developing in the western portion of the outer eyewall, and the eyewall diameter beginning to constrict once more.
The presence of deep convection in the eyewall for the first time in about 36 hours likely means that the system is moving out of the cold pool of upwelled water and into more favorable oceanographic conditions.
Environmental conditions are improving now that the system is moving away from the cold pool. While sea surface temperatures values on the road ahead are nothing to write home about, they are favorable, especially for a system that is moving steadily down track. Otherwise the environment remains favorable for development.
Now that the ridge to the north is retreating, the building ridge centered near Guam is quickly establishing dominance over the steering of TY 20W. in response, TY 20W is slowly but steadily starting to track towards the northwest. Over the next 48 hours the track will slowly turn to the north as the ridge takes on a more north-south axis and moves north along with the system. After 48 hours, TY Mindulle will accelerate to the northeast ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough moving in from the west.
TY 20W has bottomed out from an intensity perspective, and now that its moving away from the upwelling induced cold pool, will have enough of an
energy source that, when combined with low shear and strong
outflow, will fuel a period of intensification through 48 hours.
Thereafter, shear and dry air in the mid-levels will lead to slow weakening through 72 hours. Shear dramatically increases after 72 hours, and combined with cooler waters, will lead to more rapid weakening through the remainder of the forecast.
The system is expected to begin extratropical transition (ett) around 84 hours and should be complete ett as a storm force low pressure area no later than 120 hours.
>>> There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91W…located approximately 677 NM northeast of Guam
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.
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