CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)…is located approximately 445 NM southwest of Iwo To
Tropical Cyclone 03B (Gulab)…is located approximately 264 NM south-southwest of Kolkata, India
North Eastern Pacific
North Central Pacific
North western Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)
Sustained 140 knot winds…with gusts to 170 knots (as of Warning Number 15)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 20W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a quickly developing system with a nascent eye feature beginning to show itself. Subsequent imagery indicates the development of a ragged, cold, cloud-filled eye by the, indicative of the onset of the long-awaited rapid intensification phase.
The system has become much more symmetrical and moist over the past six hours, with the most recent total precipitable water loops indicating the previous dry-slot to the south is no longer present, removing one last impediment to the rapid intensification.
The environment is highly conducive to rapid intensification with very warm sea surface temperatures, robust radial outflow and low wind shear. Ocean heat content remains high for the near-term.
Super Typhoon 20W is entering a complex steering environment, characterized by the interactions between multiple ridge complexes.
The system is expected to rapidly intensify over the next 24 to 36 hours, peaking at 130 knots by 36 hours. By that point it will begin moving over a pool of cooler waters, which will serve to impede additional intensification even in the presence of otherwise near-ideal conditions.
After making its turn northeast, increasing mid-level wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures will lead to steady weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea
Tropical Cyclone 03B (Gulab)
Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 8)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 03B
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a consolidating system with a small central core of flaring convection having developed over the past few hours. A microwave image showed a band of fairly intense convection wrapping in from the northwest, along the southern side of the circulation.
The environment is marginally favorable for intensification, with moderate westward, divergent outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. However, the sharp upstream edge of the convective structure in the microwave imagery suggests some moderate east-northeast shear, though the cimss
analysis indicates only 10-15 knots of shear.
Tropical cyclone 03B is forecast to continue tracking westward through the duration of the forecast period, Along the southern periphery of the extension of the deep ridge to the north. The system is expected to make landfall along the Indian coastline north of Vishakhapatnam around 30 hours.
While an upper-level cyclone over Myanmar continues to run interference for the system, blocking the strongest of the northeasterly flow aloft, the system is still having to battle some low to moderate wind shear.
Currently, the moderately strong divergent outflow to the west is offsetting the shear, and this general pattern is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will allow for slow but steady intensification to a peak of 50 knots by landfall.
Once ashore, the system will rapidly dissipate over the rugged terrain to the northwest of Vishakhapatnam.
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