CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)…is located approximately 816 NM southeast of Kadena AB
Tropical Cyclone 03B…is located approximately 268 NM south of Kolkata, India
North Eastern Pacific
North Central Pacific
North western Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)
Sustained 70 knot winds…with gusts to 85 knots (as of Warning Number 11)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 20W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts the system has continued to consolidate with the feeder bands deepening as they tightly wrap into the low level circulation center.
Environmental analysis indicates highly favorable conditions with low wind shear, strong upper level outflow, and very warm sea surface temperatures. The cyclone is tracking along the southwestern periphery of the deep-layered ridge to the northeast.
The current favorable environment is expected to maintain as it fuels rapid intensification to 130 knots by 72 hours. Decreased upper level outflow will begin to slightly weaken the system, down to 115 knots by 120 hours.
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea
Tropical Cyclone 03B
Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 4)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 03B
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center.
The environment is overall marginally favorable with low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures despite weakening outflow aloft.
TC 03B will generally continue on its current westward track until dissipation over India before 72 hours.
The favorable environment of sustained warm sea surface temperatures, weak upper level divergence and low wind shear (10-15 knots) will fuel gradual intensification to a peak of 50 knots by 48 hours.
A slight weakening is expected before landfall due to moderate shear. Afterwards, land interaction across the rugged terrain of India will cause rapid weakening.
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