CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 159 NM west-southwest of Sasebo, Japan
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 43)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
According to the JTWC…TS 19W continues to slowly accelerate to the northeast while slowly weakening. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts broad spiral bands of low-level clouds wrapping into a low level circulation center, obscured by a recent burst of moderate convection.
The environment, while currently marginally favorable, is becoming increasingly marginal due to the continued presence of dry air impinging convective development and increasing shear offsetting warm sea surface temperatures and robust poleward outflow.
TS 19W is now firmly established on a northeast track, and is forecast to continue to accelerate northeastward, turning more eastward through the duration of the forecast. The forecast calls for a landfall along the northwest tip of Kyushu, followed by a track through the Inland Sea and crossing just south of Tokyo before continuing into the western North Pacific.
The window of opportunity for the system to take advantage of the marginally favorable conditions is getting shorter every hour, and the forecast now calls for a steady 50 knot intensity through landfall. However, the system still has a few hours where the relatively low wind shear could be offset by the robust poleward outflow, and as this coincides with the local diurnal convective maximum, could allow for a brief excursion to 55 knots.
By 12 hours though, the system will start to feel the full effects of increasing shear and begin to weaken prior to landfall. Once ashore the system will steadily weaken under the combined effects of dramatically increased shear and terrain interaction.
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