CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 285 NM southwest of Sasebo, Japan
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 39)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts the system
has maintained its central convection, obscuring the low level
Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with moderate outflow and low wind shear. The system has retraced its path over the last six hours, which has likely restrained its development due to the cooler upwelled waters under its central convection.
TS 19W has finally begun its recurve around the subtropical ridge, located to the northeast of the system. The marginally favorable environment over the next 24 hours will likely allow for slight intensification to 50 knots as it approaches the Tsushima Strait, under sustained upper level outflow, low shear and warm sea surface temperatures.
As the system tracks over Japan, after passing Iwakuni around 48 hours, increasing wind shear and land interaction will weaken it while it begins extratropical transition. Extratropical transition is expected to complete no later than 72 hours.
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