CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 257 NM southwest of Sasebo, Japan
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 36)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed low level circulation center, with the remaining associated convection remaining to the north and west.
The overall marginally unfavorable environmental conditions are due to the low ocean heat content offset by the strong upper level divergence near the low level circulation.
TS Chanthu is expected to remain quasi-stationary over the next two days. Afterward, the ridge to the northwest will weaken, allowing the secondary ridge to the southeast to assume steering and drive the system northeastward through the Sea of Japan, crossing northern Honshu near Misawa and exiting into the Pacific Ocean shortly before 96 hours.
The marginally unfavorable conditions, exacerbated by further cooling of the sea surface temperatures, as the system continues to upwell cold water, it will promote steady weakening down to 35 knots by 48 hours. Afterward, the northeastward track into higher wind shear and colder sea surface temperatures of the Sea of Japan will further weaken it to 30 knots by 96 hours…as it becomes fully extratropical.
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