CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 309 NM south-southwest of Kusan, South Korea
An elongated trough of low pressure, located a little over a 100 miles offshore the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur over the next day or two while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 32)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
According to the JTWC…TY 19W has run into a wall of ridging to the north, and forward motion has come to a halt over the past six hours, and the low
level circulation center has started to drift slowly eastward. Animated enhanced satellite imagery depicts a deteriorating and increasingly ragged convective core with warming cloud top temperatures.
The environment is becoming increasingly marginal with each passing hour, with persistent moderate southerly wind shear offset by robust poleward outflow and marginal sea surface temperatures.
TY 19W has reached its predicted poleward limit, at least for the next 48 hours, as it is now entered an area of weak steering flow between competing ridging extending from the west across the north of the system, and a large deep-layer to the east. While the exact track of TY 19W is highly uncertain in the near-term, it is expected to move east, then perform a clockwise loop through 48 hours.
By 48 hours, the western ridge will begin to erode ahead of an approaching mid-latitude dynamic trough, while the ridge to the east builds and reorients to the southwest-northeast orientation. By 72 hours the trough will eject TY
19W onto an accelerating track towards Cheju Do, skirting the south coast of Korea and into the Sea of Japan by 96 hours.
The system is forecast to steadily weaken due to a combination of upwelling of cooler waters and decreasing outflow aloft, reaching a minimum of 40 knots by 72 hours. The system will maintain 40 knot intensity as it taps into the robust, divergent outflow ahead of the mid-latitude trough offsetting the increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures.
For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.