CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)…is located approximately 59 NM southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 272 NM northwest of Kadena AB
A small area of low pressure located near the southern coast of Mexico just to the west-southwest of Puerto Escondido is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. A tropical depression could still form during the next day or so if the system remains over water while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson) – Final Warning
Sustained 25 knot winds…with gusts to 35 knots (as of Warning Number 28)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone Conson
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a weak, shallow, but persistent low level circulation center east of Quang Ngai, Vietnam, which has remained stationary over the past 12 hours. Animated radar imagery shows that the system is devoid of any significant convection with only shallow bands of precipitation wrapping into the circulation center.
The environment remains marginally unfavorable, with moderate to high wind shear offsetting warm sea surface temperatures and divergent westward outflow. The system remains firmly ensconced in a weak steering pattern, leading to the stationary movement.
TD 18W remains very firmly in a static position just offshore of Quang Ngai, Vietnam in a very weak steering environment between a trio of competing ridges. Over the next 12 hours, the eastern ridge is forecast to build in from the east and assume the dominant steering position.
This in turn will finally push TD 18W to the northwest, ultimately making landfall near Da Nang within the next 24 hours. The system is expected to continue to weaken to 25 knots in the next 12 hours, and ultimately dissipate over the rugged terrain west of Hue by 36 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
Sustained 85 knot winds…with gusts to 105 knots (as of Warning Number 28)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts that TY 19W has undergone significant weakening over the past six hours, with convective cloud tops warming significantly and the eye cooling and filling. High resolution modeling indicates dry, descending air is being entrained into the southwestern side of the system. Additionally, shear analysis reveals moderate southwesterly shear is now impinging on the system.
The combination of all these factors has led to the rapid weakening. animated radar imagery depicts the development of a moat of weak radar returns surrounding a compact core of convection which is wrapping into the ill-defined low level circulation center.
Analysis reveals an increasingly marginal environment with increasing southwesterly shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures and steadily decreasing outflow aloft.
TY 19W continues to track generally northward along the western periphery of a north-south oriented ridge to the east. The past six hours has seen the track trend a bit further
east of north than expected, but this is likely just a wobble and the overall track is forecast to be north through the next 12 to 24 hours. Between 24 and 36 hours, a deep ridge is expected to build to the northwest of the system with ridging extending eastward across
the Korean Peninsula, cocooning TY 19W in a competing steering environment. in response, TY 19W will slow and become quasi-stationary and stall in the vicinity of Shanghai between 36 and 72 hours.
By 72 hours a fairly strong mid-latitude major shortwave trough will begin to erode the ridge to the west, while the ridge to the east moves southwest and builds. The combination of the reorientation of ridge to the east and the approaching trough from the west will kick TY 19W onto an accelerating eastward track. As the system skirts the southern Korea coastline, it will become embedded under strong westerly flow aloft and begin extra-tropical transition.
By 48 hours a ridge will move directly over the system, effectively choking off any significant outflow mechanism and leading to more rapid weakening through 72 hours. Once the system starts moving east it will tap into robust divergent outflow ahead of the approaching trough, but rapidly increasing wind shear will offset this outflow, resulting in a steady intensity through the remainder of the forecast.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95B, which is located approximately 154 NM south-southwest of Kolkata, India
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts deep convection surrounding most of the broad low level circulation center, while steadily consolidating.
Environmental analysis now indicates a favorable environment due to a decrease in wind shear from moderate to low (10 knots), good equatorward outflow aloft and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are good in agreement that invest 95B will continue to consolidate and track northwestward over the next 12 to 24 hours and there exists a brief window of opportunity for the system to reach minimal tropical storm strength prior to landfall along the northeast coast of India.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30-35 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.
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