CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)…is located approximately 59 NM southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 340 NM west-southwest of Kadena AB
A broad area of low pressure offshore of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as long as it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form tomorrow or early Monday while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward toward the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Thereafter, further development is not expected due to interaction with land. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)
Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 25)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone Conson
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery and radar data shows the center of TS 18W is just offshore near Cu Lao Re Island. The low level circulation center remains fully exposed, with moderate convective activity sheared to the west by persistent moderate easterly shear.
TS Conson is forecast to continue tracking west-southwest and make landfall near Binh Son, Vietnam within the next 6 to 12 hours. Over the next 24 hours the steering ridge to the north is expected to weaken, lessening the steering gradient, and as the system is relatively shallow, the track after landfall will be highly influenced by the local terrain. Thus, once over land, the track is expected to turn northwestward, paralleling the 2600 meter mountains that lie to the west of Binh Son.
TS 18W is struggling to maintain intensity in the face of persistent moderate easterly shear, and once over land this process will accelerate,
leading to dissipation over the rugged terrain by 48 hours.
There remains a possible alternate scenario, in which the steering ridge breaks down relatively quickly, leading to a weak steering pattern, allowing the system to make a brief landfall before returning to sea, remaining quasi-stationary for a period and then tracking northwestward parallel to the coastline.
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
Sustained 110 knot winds…with gusts to 135 knots (as of Warning Number 24)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a compact area symmetrical deep convection surrounding a ragged, elongated 10-NM wide eye.
TY 19W continues to demonstrate a high degree of resilience, and while weakening significantly since the previous analysis, it still shows signs of trying to intensify. The ragged eye has become better organized, and the core convection has become more symmetrical in the subsequent hours.
The system has fought off a band of dry air that was intruding into the
core, and has pushed back against and earlier bought of northerly shear. The system is moving across a tongue of moderately high sea surface temperatures to the east of Lan Yu Island
TY 19W is moving north along the western periphery of a north-south oriented ridge centered southeast of Honshu, and is expected to maintain this track through 48 hours. The system may move slightly left of the track as it interacts with and is pulled towards the central mountain range of Taiwan, but otherwise should skirt the northeast tip of Taiwan before continuing into the East China Sea.
By 48 hours the system will move into a weak steering pattern, caught between ridges centered east of Kyushu, west of Shandong and over southeastern China. It is expected that TY 19W will remain quasi-stationary in the vicinity of Shanghai while remaining cocooned in this weak steering pattern though at least 96 hours.
By 120hours the western ridge is expected to erode ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, which will allow the system to start moving eastward by 120 hours. In the near term, TY 19W is expected to maintain its current intensity as it continues moving over sea waters.
However, increasing wind shear and interaction with the rugged terrain of Taiwan will result in steady weakening after 24 hours. Once the system slows and remains quasi-stationary near Shanghai it will rapidly come under the influence of increasing shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and convergent flow aloft, leading to more rapid weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95B, which is located approximately 184 NM south of Kolkata, India
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts expansive and scattered convection around a broad exposed low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates an overall favorable environment due to moderate wind shear (15-20 knots), favorable sea surface temperatures, and burgeoning equatorward outflow.
Global models are in agreement that invest 95B will track northwest and has a small window to intensify withl the tropical easterly jet weakening in the northern Bay of Bengal.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.
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