Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 53 km NE of Anse-Bertrand, Guadeloupe

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    25 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Palma, Spain

    37 minutes ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Three

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Subtropical Storm - Teresa

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Hurricane - Sam

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Typhoon - Mindulle

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Langila, Papua New Guinea

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 182 km WSW of Adak, Alaska

    21 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - south of Africa

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semisopochnoi, United States

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 203 km N of Shi Yomi, India

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Novarupta, United States

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Tampa--St. Petersburg, FL Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Bridgeport--Stamford, CT--NY Region, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Tulare, California - United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Redding (Fawn Fire), California - United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Siskiyou County (McCash Fire), California, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Trinity County (Monument Fire), California, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sudan

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brazil

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Bolivia

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Broome, Western Australia - Australia

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Burketown, Queensland - Australia

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 141 km SW of Empaque Tarriba, Mexico

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Nicobar Islands, India region

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 184 km WSW of Adak, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 95 miles SE of Amchitka, Alaska - 6.3

    21 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 142 km SW of Empaque Tarriba, Mexico

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Storms - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Maine, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Luwu Regency, South Sulawesi, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Central Lombok Regency, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

    1 day ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bolaang Mongondow Regency, North Sulawesi,Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern Mindanao Island, Philippines

    1 day ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Bone Bolango, Gorontalo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Hong Kong

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 38 km S of Mount Buller, Australia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hispaniola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Odisha, India

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 days ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
September 11, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)…is located approximately 59 NM southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 340 NM west-southwest of Kadena AB

 


Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

A broad area of low pressure offshore of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as long as it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form tomorrow or early Monday while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward toward the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Thereafter, further development is not expected due to interaction with land. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

Central north Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days

Northwest Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)

Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 25)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone Conson

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery and radar data shows the center of TS 18W is just offshore near Cu Lao Re Island. The low level circulation center remains fully exposed, with moderate convective activity sheared to the west by persistent moderate easterly shear.

TS Conson is forecast to continue tracking west-southwest and make landfall near Binh Son, Vietnam within the next 6 to 12 hours. Over the next 24 hours the steering ridge to the north is expected to weaken, lessening the steering gradient, and as the system is relatively shallow, the track after landfall will be highly influenced by the local terrain. Thus, once over land, the track is expected to turn northwestward, paralleling the 2600 meter mountains that lie to the west of Binh Son.

TS 18W is struggling to maintain intensity in the face of persistent moderate easterly shear, and once over land this process will accelerate,
leading to dissipation over the rugged terrain by 48 hours.

There remains a possible alternate scenario, in which the steering ridge breaks down relatively quickly, leading to a weak steering pattern, allowing the system to make a brief landfall before returning to sea, remaining quasi-stationary for a period and then tracking northwestward parallel to the coastline.

 

Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)

Sustained 110 knot winds…with gusts to 135 knots (as of Warning Number 24)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a compact area symmetrical deep convection surrounding a ragged, elongated 10-NM wide eye.

TY 19W continues to demonstrate a high degree of resilience, and while weakening significantly since the previous analysis, it still shows signs of trying to intensify. The ragged eye has become better organized, and the core convection has become more symmetrical in the subsequent hours.

The system has fought off a band of dry air that was intruding into the
core, and has pushed back against and earlier bought of northerly shear. The system is moving across a tongue of moderately high sea surface temperatures to the east of Lan Yu Island

TY 19W is moving north along the western periphery of a north-south oriented ridge centered southeast of Honshu, and is expected to maintain this track through 48 hours. The system may move slightly left of the track as it interacts with and is pulled towards the central mountain range of Taiwan, but otherwise should skirt the northeast tip of Taiwan before continuing into the East China Sea.

By 48 hours the system will move into a weak steering pattern, caught between ridges centered east of Kyushu, west of Shandong and over southeastern China. It is expected that TY 19W will remain quasi-stationary in the vicinity of Shanghai while remaining cocooned in this weak steering pattern though at least 96 hours.

By 120hours the western ridge is expected to erode ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, which will allow the system to start moving eastward by 120 hours. In the near term, TY 19W is expected to maintain its current intensity as it continues moving over sea waters.

However, increasing wind shear and interaction with the rugged terrain of Taiwan will result in steady weakening after 24 hours. Once the system slows and remains quasi-stationary near Shanghai it will rapidly come under the influence of increasing shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and convergent flow aloft, leading to more rapid weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.

 

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95B, which is located approximately 184 NM south of Kolkata, India

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts expansive and scattered convection around a broad exposed low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates an overall favorable environment due to moderate wind shear (15-20 knots), favorable sea surface temperatures, and burgeoning equatorward outflow.

Global models are in agreement that invest 95B will track northwest and has a small window to intensify withl the tropical easterly jet weakening in the northern Bay of Bengal.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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