CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Olaf)…located about 45 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)…is located approximately 145 NM east of Da Nang, Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)…is located approximately 518 NM southwest of Kadena AB
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Olaf)
OLAF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR…EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY
According to the NHC Advisory 13…Olaf is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday, followed by a southwestward motion beginning on Saturday night and continuing into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will continue moving away from the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a couple of hundred miles of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico are associated with the southern portion of an approaching tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this wave to the south of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northwestward near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Central north Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Conson)
Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 20)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone Conson
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows deep convection situated to the west of the partially exposed low level circulation center
Despite warm sea surface temperatures, the weak equatorward outflow and high wind shear maintain an only marginally favorable environment.
TS Conson will continue to track generally westward under the ridge until landfall shortly after 36 hours, while passing through warm sea surface temperatures, under a weak equatorward outflow channel. Afterward, it will turn more west-northwestward as the ridge is weakened by a mid-latitude trough.
The marginally favorable environment may fuel a slight intensification to a peak of 45 knots by 12 hours, however, sustained wind shear will likely hamper significant development before landfall. TS 18W is expected to dissipate due to frictional effects over land by 72 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Chanthu)
Sustained 155 knot winds…with gusts to 190 knots (as of Warning Number 19)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 19W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a dense, compact system with a vertically stacked 15 NM diameter eye.
The current environment is marginally favorable for significant development given its decreasing proximity to the robust outflow mechanism situated to its east. Despite this, the sea surface temperatures and wind shear remain favorable.
Super Typhoon Chantu has maintained its compact structure while completing another intensification period under highly favorable conditions. However, as it continues to move northwest, it is expected to lose the radial outflow that accelerated its development earlier.
Therefore, significant intensification is unlikely within the next 24 hours despite sustained low wind shear (15 knots or less) and warm sea surface temperatures in the Luzon Strait. Landfall in Taiwan is expected around 48 hours. After passing through Taiwan, increasing wind shear will reduce STY 19W down to 55 knots by 120 hours.
>>> There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96W, which is located approximately 102 NM south-southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts persistent convection obscuring a low level circulation center.
Invest 96W is embedded in the northern periphery of STY 19W and is undergoing Fujiwara interaction with rapid track speeds. Invest 96W is under the westerly outflow from STY 19W, however, wind shear is moderate (15-20 knots) allowing deep convection to persist and weakly organize. Additionally, sea surface temperatures are warm.
Global models indicate invest 96W will continue to rotate rapidly around the periphery of STY 19W and will eventually dissipate as it becomes absorbed within the next 12 to 18 hours. There is a narrow window for development before the system tracks over the mountainous terrain of Taiwan.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.
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