CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Norbert)…is located about 430 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 434 miles southwest of Yokosuka, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Norbert)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT REMAINS STATIONARY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF MEXICO
What the computer models are showing
According to the NHC advisory 14…The depression is currently stationary. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
>>> A low pressure system located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a relatively small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Due to dry air surrounding the low, environmental conditions are only somewhat conducive for development, but a tropical depression could still form while the low moves toward the west and west-southwest at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
>>> A weak area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts toward the southeast or east during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, TY 16W is now passing through an environment that is no longer favorable for further development, with moderate to high 20-25 knot wind shear, offset by warm sea surface temperatures, and robust poleward and equatorward outflow aloft.
TY 16W is forecast to track northeastward through the next 24 hours…generally weakening to 65 knots. By 48 hours, continued high wind shear coupled with cool sea surface temperatures will lead to continued weakening to 55 knots.
>>> There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 92W, which is located approximately 123 NM west-southwest of Manila, Philippines
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, Invest 91W is located in an environment that is favorable for further development, with equatorward outflow, low <15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that he system will continue to track northwestward as it strengthens and consolidates.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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