Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lexington Park--California--Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD Region, United States

    35 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    28 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Washington, DC--VA--MD Region, United States

    46 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Atlanta, GA Region, United States

    56 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Dalton, GA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Yuba City, California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Blue Ridge Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Silverado Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Grand County (East Troublesome Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Atsani

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Piggott, AR Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Cassville, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Zeta

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mobile, AL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Leonard Wood, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Antananarivo - Madagascar

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Ambatondrazaka, Toamasina - Madagascar

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Chattanooga, TN--GA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Typhoon - Goni

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Newport, TN Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 35 km W of Rauco, Chile

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - Easter Island region

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Karnataka, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 63 km N of La Serena, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 65 km SSW of Sola, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 123 km NNE of Atka, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southwestern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Laos

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - North Cotabato, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Guimbal, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bagerhat, Bangladesh

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Jamaica

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Monkeypox - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 6, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Post-Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)…is located about 1675 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Norbert)…is located about 355 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 456 miles east of Kadena AB, Okinawa

 

Northeast Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP18/refresh/EP182020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/204332_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/EPAC/18E.MARIE/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20201006.2330.goes17.x.vis1km_high.18EMARIE.35kts-1005mb-222N-1353W.100pc.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

Post-Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)

What the computer models are showing

According to the NHC’s Advisory 32…Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph, and this general motion should continue through Wednesday afternoon.

A turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed should begin late Wednesday and continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Additional gradual weakening is expected during the next several days, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate on Saturday.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP19/refresh/EP192020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/205458_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/EPAC/19E.NORBERT/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20201006.2330.goes17.x.vis1km_high.19ENORBERT.45kts-1001mb-143N-1066W.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 19E (Norbert)

What the computer models are showing 

According to the NHC advisory 6…Norbert is moving toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). The storm is forecast to meander or remain nearly stationary over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is possible over the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

>>> An elongated area of low pressure, located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly north-northwestward at about 5 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

 

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

 

Western North Pacific

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1620.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/16W.CHAN-HOM/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201006.2010.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.16WCHAN-HOM.60kts-980mb-251N-1361E.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, environmental conditions remain favorable with enhanced poleward outflow, good equatorward outflow, low 5-10 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TS 16W is forecast to track generally northwestward, intensifying at a slower than normal rate to a peak of 80 knots by 48 hours. The storm will slow significantly as it approaches the Ryukyu Islands.

After 72 hours, the system will turn generally northeastward and track along the southern coast of Japan. Due to the high >30 knot wind shear, TS 16W is expected to gradually weaken for the remainder of the forecast period, to an intensity of 50 knots by 120 hours.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/91W.INVEST/vis/ols/1km/20201006.0917.f18.x.vis1km.91WINVEST.15kts-1003mb-123N-1120E.092pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 91W, which is located approximately 295 NM southwest of Da Nang, Vietnam

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, Invest 91W is currently located in a marginally favorable environment conducive for development, with broad upper level outflow, low <15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface tempertures.

Global models indicate the system will continue to track westward and consolidate slightly before making landfall in 12-18 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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