Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    11 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Vietnam

    16 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    17 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    17 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lexington Park--California--Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD Region, United States

    56 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    49 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Washington, DC--VA--MD Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Atlanta, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Dalton, GA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Yuba City, California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Blue Ridge Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Silverado Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Grand County (East Troublesome Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Atsani

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Piggott, AR Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Cassville, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Zeta

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mobile, AL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Leonard Wood, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Antananarivo - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Ambatondrazaka, Toamasina - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Chattanooga, TN--GA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Typhoon - Goni

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Newport, TN Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 35 km W of Rauco, Chile

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - Easter Island region

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Karnataka, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 63 km N of La Serena, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 65 km SSW of Sola, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 123 km NNE of Atka, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southwestern Ethiopia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Laos

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - North Cotabato, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Guimbal, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bagerhat, Bangladesh

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Jamaica

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Monkeypox - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 5, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)…is located about 1510 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 19E…is located about 405 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 167 miles west-southwest of Iwo To, Japan

 

Northeast Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP18/refresh/EP182020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/204332_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/EPAC/18E.MARIE/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201005.1330.goes17.x.ir1km_bw.18EMARIE.50kts-996mb-209N-1315W.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)

What the computer models are showing

According to the NHC’s Advisory 28…Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP19/refresh/EP192020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/205458_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

Tropical Cyclone 19E 

What the computer models are showing 

According to the NHC advisory 2…The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Tuesday. The depression is forecast to remain nearly stationary through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday, and then little change in strength is forecast through midweek.

 

>>> A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This disturbance is producing only disorganized cloudiness and a few showers. Some slight development of this system is possible over the next day or so while the system moves little.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

>>> Another broad area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is currently producing only limited shower and thunderstorm activity, but conditions could become a little more conducive for development in a couple of days. This disturbance is forecast to move generally northwestward at a very slow forward speed through most of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

 

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

 

Western North Pacific

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1620.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/16W.CHAN-HOM/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201005.1310.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.16WCHAN-HOM.40kts-993mb-235N-1392E.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, the system is slowly tracking through a favorable environment for further development with low 5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.

TD 16W will continue tracking generally northwestward through 72 hours. During this time, the storm is forecast to reach an intensity of 85 knots by 72 hours…due to the continued low wind shear and warm sea water temperatures.

After 72 hours, the system will track northward as it maneuvers east of Kadena, Okinawa. Intensification will slow during this period, and the wind shear begins to increase to greater than 20 knots by 96 hours.
Wind shear will likely peak over 30 knots by 120 hours, which will drop the intensify to 75 knots.

 

South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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