Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - N of Yuba City, California - United States

    5 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Blue Ridge Fire), California, United States

    5 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Silverado Fire), California, United States

    5 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Grand County (East Troublesome Fire), Colorado, United States

    5 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    5 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    6 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    6 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    6 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Vietnam

    38 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Java Province, Indonesia

    23 minutes ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Quang Nam Province, Vietnam

    25 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern England, United Kingdom

    28 minutes ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    32 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    34 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    40 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    40 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lexington Park--California--Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Atlanta, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Dalton, GA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Atsani

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Piggott, AR Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Cassville, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Zeta

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mobile, AL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Leonard Wood, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Antananarivo - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Ambatondrazaka, Toamasina - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Chattanooga, TN--GA Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Typhoon - Goni

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Newport, TN Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - South Shetland Islands

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 35 km W of Rauco, Chile

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - Easter Island region

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Karnataka, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 63 km N of La Serena, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 65 km SSW of Sola, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 123 km NNE of Atka, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southwestern Ethiopia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Laos

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - North Cotabato, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Guimbal, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bagerhat, Bangladesh

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Jamaica

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Monkeypox - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 4, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)…is located about 1305 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 799 miles southeast of Sasebo, Japan

 

Northeast Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP18/refresh/EP182020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/204332_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/EPAC/18E.MARIE/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201004.1400.goes17.x.ir1km_bw.18EMARIE.80kts-975mb-201N-1283W.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)

What the computer models are showing

According to the NHC’s Advisory 24…Marie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed by the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected. Marie is forecast to become a tropical depression or remnant low by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

 

>>> Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it drifts northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

>>> An area of low pressure could form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple of days. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly northward toward the coasts of Mexico and Guatemala.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low…10 percent

 

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

 

Western North Pacific

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1620.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/16W.SIXTEEN/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201004.1340.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.16WSIXTEEN.25kts-998mb-225N-1392E.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, the system is slowly tracking through a favorable environment for further development with low 5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.

TD 16W will continue tracking generally northwestward through 72 hours. During this time, the storm is forecast to reach an intensity of 85 knots by 72 hours…due to the continued low wind shear and warm sea water temperatures.

After 72 hours, the system will track northward as it maneuvers east of Kadena, Okinawa. Intensification will slow during this period, and the wind shear begins to increase to greater than 20 knots by 96 hours.
Wind shear will likely peak over 30 knots by 120 hours, which will drop the intensify to 75 knots.

 

South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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