CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Typhoon 22W (Goni)…is located approximately 165 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)…is located approximately 779 NM east of Manila, Philippines
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south or southwest of the coast of southern Mexico by Monday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Western North Pacific
Typhoon 22W (Goni)
Here’s what the computer models show for this Typhoon
According to the JTWC, upper air analysis reveals environment a very favorable environment, with very warm sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 know wind shear, and robust radial outflow.
TY 22W will make landfall over central Luzon, tracking just south of Manila, and exit into the South China Sea. The environment will remain favorable in the near term, however, with a gradual weakening…although still at Super Typhoon intensity.
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, TD remains in a overall unfavorable environment, with moderate to high 20-25 knot wind shear and weak outflow aloft, offset only slightly by warm sea surface temperatures.
The environment is forecast to improve slightly as wind shear weakens and poleward outflow improves slightly…leading to a slow intensification to 55 knots by 72 hours.
In the extended forecast, the system will move west-southwest and then westward. Environmental conditions are forecast to improve even more with decreased wind shear and the addition of an equatorward outflow channel. These conditions, coupled with continued warm sea surface temperatures, will allow for further intensification to 80 knots within 120 hours.
North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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