Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - SW of Aweil, North Bahr-al-Ghazal - South Sudan

    36 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    39 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    46 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Telica, Nicaragua

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Port Douglas, Queensland - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Irvine (Bond Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bojonegoro, East Java, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Garut Town, West Java, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Prabumulih, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - South Korea

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Olmue Commune (La Bodeguilla Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Maria Pinto and Melipilla Communes (Mallarauco Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern Sri Lanka

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Queensland (Fraser Island Fire), Australia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - San Diego County (Willow Fire), California, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Riverside (Cerritos Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwest Territories, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Haines, Alaska

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Paz, Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Vietnam

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Thailand

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Philippines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Burevi

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 45 km NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Richmond, VA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 75 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Iraq

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - central East Pacific Rise

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Croatia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tarija, Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 31, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Typhoon 22W (Goni)…is located approximately 165 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)…is located approximately 779 NM east of Manila, Philippines
 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south or southwest of the coast of southern Mexico by Monday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Western North Pacific

 

Typhoon 22W (Goni)

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/22W.GONI/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201031.0900.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.22WGONI.155kts-904mb-142N-1265E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show for this Typhoon

According to the JTWC, upper air analysis reveals environment a very favorable environment, with very warm sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 know wind shear, and robust radial outflow.

TY 22W will make landfall over central Luzon, tracking just south of Manila, and exit into the South China Sea. The environment will remain favorable in the near term, however, with a gradual weakening…although still at Super Typhoon intensity.

Afterwards, interaction with the rugged terrain will cause significant decay and weaken the system to 75 knots by 36 hours after moves into the South China Sea. After 36 hours, TY 22W will steadily weaken to 55 knots by 72 hours, due to increased 20-25 knot wind shear.
Beyond 72 hours, Goni will continue westward, making a second and final landfall over central Vietnam south of Da Nang within 108 hours. The system will continue to gradually weaken due to moderate 20-25 knot wind shear, and after landfall…rapid weakening with the addition of frictional effects from the terrain.

Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/23W.ATSANI/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201031.0900.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.23WATSANI.30kts-1003mb-147N-1376E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, TD remains in a overall unfavorable environment, with moderate to high 20-25 knot wind shear and weak outflow aloft, offset only slightly by warm sea surface temperatures.

The environment is forecast to improve slightly as wind shear weakens and poleward outflow improves slightly…leading to a slow intensification to 55 knots by 72 hours.

In the extended forecast, the system will move west-southwest and then westward. Environmental conditions are forecast to improve even more with decreased wind shear and the addition of an equatorward outflow channel. These conditions, coupled with continued warm sea surface temperatures, will allow for further intensification to 80 knots within 120 hours.

 

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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