Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    20 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    44 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Port Douglas, Queensland - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Aweil, North Bahr-al-Ghazal - South Sudan

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Irvine (Bond Fire), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bojonegoro, East Java, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Garut Town, West Java, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Prabumulih, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - South Korea

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Switzerland

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southern Switzerland

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Olmue Commune (La Bodeguilla Fire), Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Maria Pinto and Melipilla Communes (Mallarauco Fire), Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern Sri Lanka

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern India

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern India

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Queensland (Fraser Island Fire), Australia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - San Diego County (Willow Fire), California, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Riverside (Cerritos Fire), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwest Territories, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Haines, Alaska

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Paz, Bolivia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Vietnam

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Thailand

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Philippines

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Burevi

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Telica, Nicaragua

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 45 km NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Richmond, VA Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 75 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 76 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Iraq

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - central East Pacific Rise

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Croatia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tarija, Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 30, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Super Typhoon 22W (Goni)…is located approximately 454 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)…is located approximately 247 NM north-northeast of Yap
 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of southern Mexico by this weekend.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Western North Pacific

 

Super Typhoon 22W (Goni)

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/22W.GONI/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201030.0840.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.22WGONI.155kts-905mb-161N-1309E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show for this Super Typhoon

According to the JTWC, STY 22W has started to track more southwestward, while the forward speed has slowed down quite a bit. The overall environment remains highly favorable with very warm sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 know wind shear, and robust radial outflow…with an enhanced poleward outflow channel.

TY 22W will continue to track southwestward through 36 hours, then west-southwestward. The system is forecast to make landfall in central Luzon, northeast of Manila before 48 hours as a significant tropical cyclone…then track across Luzon and into the South China Sea within 72 hours.

The super typhoon has likely peaked, and intensity is very likely to start to decrease in strength slowly over the next 12 hours. The system is forecast to weaken to 125 knots by 36 hours, and even slightly lower prior to landfall.
After landfall and moving across the mountainous terrain of central Luzon, the system will re-emerge into the South China Sea in a dramatically weakened condition…being a minimal typhoon by 72 hours.
In the extended periods, the system will track westward, making another landfall along the central Vietnamese coast near 120 hours. The storm will continue to weaken under the influence of moderate wind shear and continued entrainment of dry air.

Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/23W.ATSANI/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201030.0840.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.23WATSANI.25kts-1007mb-120N-1422E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, TD remains in a generally unfavorable environment, hindering development. While sea surface temperatures are very warm, wind shear is a moderate 15-20 knots, and the upper level outflow is weak.

TD 23W is forecast to continue tracking northwestward over the next 48 hours…continuing through 72 hours…then westward. While it continues to struggle, the environment is supportive of slow intensification as STY 23W moves westward, and the upper level outflow slowly becomes for favorable through 48 hours.

Beyond 72 hours, the system slows significantly while turning west. From 72-120 hours, the development of much improved outflow and decreased wind shear will allow for steady intensification, peaking at 90 knots by 96 hours.

 

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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