Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Flood - Lexington Park--California--Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD Region, United States

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    33 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Washington, DC--VA--MD Region, United States

    27 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Atlanta, GA Region, United States

    37 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    52 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Dalton, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Yuba City, California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Blue Ridge Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Silverado Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Grand County (East Troublesome Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Atsani

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Piggott, AR Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Cassville, MO Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Zeta

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mobile, AL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Leonard Wood, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Antananarivo - Madagascar

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Ambatondrazaka, Toamasina - Madagascar

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Chattanooga, TN--GA Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Typhoon - Goni

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Fort Smith, AR--OK Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Newport, TN Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 35 km W of Rauco, Chile

    14 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - Easter Island region

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Karnataka, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 63 km N of La Serena, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 65 km SSW of Sola, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 123 km NNE of Atka, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southwestern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Laos

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - North Cotabato, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Guimbal, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bagerhat, Bangladesh

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Jamaica

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Monkeypox - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 3, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)…is located about 1180 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California

 

Northeast Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP18/refresh/EP182020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/204332_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/EPAC/18E.MARIE/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201003.1330.goes17.x.ir1km_bw.18EMARIE.115kts-948mb-181N-1267W.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)

What the computer models are showing

According to the NHC’s Advisory 20…Marie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward with little change in forward speed for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).

 

>>> An elongated area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this disturbance has increased during the past few hours. Additional development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

>>> Another area of low pressure could form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts northward offshore of the southern coasts of Mexico and Guatemala.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

 

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Western North Pacific

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/90W.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201003.1830.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.90WINVEST.20kts-1004mb-218N-1393E.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 208 NM southwest of Iwo To, Japan

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, Invest 90W is located in an environment conducive for further development with good equatorward outflow, low <15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface tempertures.

Global models are spread between tracking this disturbance into the area east of Honshu, Japan…to the northeast of Taiwan.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium

 

South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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