Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    11 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Telica, Nicaragua

    15 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    27 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    41 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Port Douglas, Queensland - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Aweil, North Bahr-al-Ghazal - South Sudan

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Irvine (Bond Fire), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bojonegoro, East Java, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Garut Town, West Java, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Prabumulih, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - South Korea

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Switzerland

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southern Switzerland

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Olmue Commune (La Bodeguilla Fire), Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Maria Pinto and Melipilla Communes (Mallarauco Fire), Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern Sri Lanka

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern India

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern India

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Queensland (Fraser Island Fire), Australia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - San Diego County (Willow Fire), California, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Riverside (Cerritos Fire), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwest Territories, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Haines, Alaska

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Paz, Bolivia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Vietnam

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Thailand

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Philippines

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Burevi

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 45 km NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Richmond, VA Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 75 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 76 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Iraq

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - central East Pacific Rise

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Croatia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tarija, Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 28, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)…is located approximately 38 NM south-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Goni)…is located approximately 909 NM east of Manila, Philippines
 

 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as the system moves westward or west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave) Final Warning

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2120.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/21W.MOLAVE/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201028.1020.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.21WMOLAVE.55kts-988mb-154N-1069E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, upper level analysis reveals increased 30+ knot wind shear. This, plus interaction with the rugged terrain will rapidly erode the system as it drags across Vietnam, Laos, and into Thailand…leading to dissipation.

 

Tropical Cyclone 22W

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/22W.TWENTYTWO/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201028.1020.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.22WTWENTYTWO.35kts-1000mb-166N-1387E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, TS 22W is tracking over warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea, and under low 5-10 knot wind shear, and good radial outflow. This is a favorable environment for continued development.

TS 22W will continue to track westward through 12 hours, then west-southwestward, until by 72 hours, will be approximately 345 NM east of Manila. The favorable conditions will promote gradual intensification up to 48 hours, then rapid intensification to a peak of 105 knots by 72 hours…as it drifts over a warmer pool of water in the Philippine Sea.

After 72 hours, the system will track more west-northwestward, making landfall over central Luzon, Philippines around 102 hours, then exit into the South China Sea by 108 hours. Interaction with the rugged terrain in addition to increased 20 knot wind shear, will lead to a weakening down to 55 knots by 120 hours.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/90W.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201028.1100.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.90WINVEST.15kts-1007mb-63N-1504E.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 146 NM west-southwest of Chuuk, FSM

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, Invest 90W is in a favorable environment for development with equatorward outflow aloft, low <15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 90W will consolidate and strengthen over the next 36-72 hours as it tracks northwestward.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium

 

 

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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