Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - SW of Aweil, North Bahr-al-Ghazal - South Sudan

    28 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    31 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    38 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Telica, Nicaragua

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Port Douglas, Queensland - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Irvine (Bond Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bojonegoro, East Java, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Garut Town, West Java, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Prabumulih, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - South Korea

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Olmue Commune (La Bodeguilla Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Maria Pinto and Melipilla Communes (Mallarauco Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern Sri Lanka

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Queensland (Fraser Island Fire), Australia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - San Diego County (Willow Fire), California, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Riverside (Cerritos Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwest Territories, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Haines, Alaska

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Paz, Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Vietnam

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Thailand

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Philippines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Burevi

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 45 km NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Richmond, VA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 75 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Iraq

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - central East Pacific Rise

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Croatia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tarija, Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 26, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)…is located approximately 405 NM east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam

 

Northeast Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_5d0.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Some further development will be possible thereafter and continue through the weekend while the system moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2120.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/21W.MOLAVE/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201026.1930.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.21WMOLAVE.100kts-958mb-133N-1147E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, environmental analysis reveals that Ty 21W lies in an overall favorable environment, with robust equatorward and westward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures…with15-20 knot east wind shear.

TY 21W is forecast to continue tracking west to west-northwestward through the entire forecast period. The system is expected to quickly intensify to a peak of 105 knots in the next 12 hours, as it moves over a pool of warm water, which when combined with the robust divergent outflow, will allow the storm to fight off the easterly wind shear.

After peaking, the system will begin a slow weakening trend as it moves over the cooler waters in the wake of TY 19W, and increasing wind shear offsets the strong equatorward outflow.

TY 21W is forecast to make landfall near 40 hours south of Da Nang, Vietnam and will rapidly weaken and dissipate over central Thailand by 72 hours.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/99W.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201026.0500.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.99WINVEST.20kts-1007mb-145N-1417E.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 224 NM northwest of Guam

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, Invest 99W is currently in a marginal environment with moderate upper level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures, being offset by moderate 15-25 knot wind shear.

Global models are in good agreement that 99W will continue to track generally west-northwestward with minimal intensification.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

 

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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