CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)…is located approximately 405 NM east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Some further development will be possible thereafter and continue through the weekend while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, environmental analysis reveals that Ty 21W lies in an overall favorable environment, with robust equatorward and westward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures…with15-20 knot east wind shear.
TY 21W is forecast to continue tracking west to west-northwestward through the entire forecast period. The system is expected to quickly intensify to a peak of 105 knots in the next 12 hours, as it moves over a pool of warm water, which when combined with the robust divergent outflow, will allow the storm to fight off the easterly wind shear.
After peaking, the system will begin a slow weakening trend as it moves over the cooler waters in the wake of TY 19W, and increasing wind shear offsets the strong equatorward outflow.
TY 21W is forecast to make landfall near 40 hours south of Da Nang, Vietnam and will rapidly weaken and dissipate over central Thailand by 72 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 224 NM northwest of Guam
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, Invest 99W is currently in a marginal environment with moderate upper level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures, being offset by moderate 15-25 knot wind shear.
Global models are in good agreement that 99W will continue to track generally west-northwestward with minimal intensification.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.
North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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