Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Telica, Nicaragua

    33 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    45 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Port Douglas, Queensland - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Aweil, North Bahr-al-Ghazal - South Sudan

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Irvine (Bond Fire), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bojonegoro, East Java, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Garut Town, West Java, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Prabumulih, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - South Korea

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Switzerland

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southern Switzerland

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Olmue Commune (La Bodeguilla Fire), Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Maria Pinto and Melipilla Communes (Mallarauco Fire), Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern Sri Lanka

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern India

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern India

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Queensland (Fraser Island Fire), Australia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - San Diego County (Willow Fire), California, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Riverside (Cerritos Fire), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwest Territories, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Haines, Alaska

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Paz, Bolivia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Vietnam

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Thailand

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Philippines

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Burevi

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 45 km NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Richmond, VA Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 75 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 76 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Iraq

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - central East Pacific Rise

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Croatia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tarija, Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 24, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Saudel)…is located approximately 109 NM north-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)…is located approximately 317 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines

 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 19W (Saudel)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1920.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/19W.SAUDEL/vis/ols/1km/20201024.0851.f18.x.vis1km.19WSAUDEL.50kts-997mb-176N-1115E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, environmental analysis moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, good equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures…contributing to an overall marginal environment.

TS 19W will continue to move steadily westward then west-southwestward through the forecast period. Increasing wind shear will cause the system to slowly weaken as it approaches Vietnam with landfall anticipated prior to 36 hours.

Afterwards, the storm will rapidly weaken as it tracks across the rugged terrain with dissipation expected by 48 hours.

 

Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2120.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/21W.TWENTYONE/vis/ols/1km/20201024.0725.f18.x.vis1km.21WTWENTYONE.30kts-1006mb-133N-1289E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, upper level analysis is characterized by westward outflow and moderate 15-20 knot wind shear. Combined with warm sea surface temperatures, the environment is moderately favorable for continued development.

TS 21W is expected to continue consolidating as it tracks generally westward. As favorable conditions persist, reaching 60 knots prior to making landfall over the east Philippines in near 24 hours.

Slight weakening is expected as the system transits over the Archipelago, before re-emerging into the South China Sea, where re-intensification is forecast to peak at 80 knots within 72 hours.

After 72 hours, the system will approach central Vietnam. Persistent favorable environmental conditions will allow the system to only slightly weaken by 96 hours, due to interaction with the coast, making landfall just after 96 hours. Afterwards, the rugged terrain of Vietnam will steadily weaken the storm as it tracks inland.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/99W.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201024.0600.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.99WINVEST.15kts-1009mb-85N-1524E.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 79 NM east of Fananu.

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, Invest 99W is in a moderately favorable environment for development, with good eastward upper outflow aloft, warm sea surface temperatures…offset by unfavorable 25-30 knot wind shear.

Global models in good agreement that the system will track generally west-northwestward with minimal intensification over the next several days…before turning onto a more northward track and intensifying to warning threshold.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

 

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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