Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lexington Park--California--Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD Region, United States

    43 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    37 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Washington, DC--VA--MD Region, United States

    55 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Atlanta, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Dalton, GA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Yuba City, California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Blue Ridge Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Silverado Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Grand County (East Troublesome Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Atsani

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Piggott, AR Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Cassville, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Zeta

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mobile, AL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Leonard Wood, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Antananarivo - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Ambatondrazaka, Toamasina - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Chattanooga, TN--GA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Typhoon - Goni

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Newport, TN Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 35 km W of Rauco, Chile

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - Easter Island region

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Karnataka, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 63 km N of La Serena, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 65 km SSW of Sola, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 123 km NNE of Atka, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southwestern Ethiopia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Laos

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - North Cotabato, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Guimbal, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bagerhat, Bangladesh

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Jamaica

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Monkeypox - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 14, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Norbert)…is located about 150 miles south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Nangka)…is located about 59 NM southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam – Final Warning

 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP19/refresh/EP192020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/203916_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/13/1800x1080.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 19E (Norbert)

NORBERT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT

What the computer models are showing 

According to the NHC Advisory 25…Norbert is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).

A decrease in forward speed is expected overnight and on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

Additional weakening is expected, and Norbert is forecast to become a remnant low overnight.

The remnant low is then expected to dissipate Thursday afternoon or evening.

 

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Nangka) – Final Warning

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1820.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/18W.NANGKA/vis/ols/1km/20201014.0917.f18.x.vis1km.18WNANGKA.30kts-1001mb-202N-1055E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, the system has made landfall south of Haiphong, Vietnam and will continue tracking inland, while dissipating over the mountainous terrain of northwest Vietnam and northern Laos…over the next 36 hours.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/94W.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201014.0740.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.94WINVEST.20kts-1006mb-131N-1222E.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 203 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines.

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, the system is in a favorable environment for development with low <15 knot wind shear, good westward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that Invest 94W will continue to track westward over the central Philippines…before consolidating further in the South China Sea.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/IO/92A.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201014.2230.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.92AINVEST.15kts-1003mb-171N-759E.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92A, which is located approximately 210 NM east-southeast of Mumbai.

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates unfavorable 25-30 knot wind shear, offset by good divergence aloft.

Global models depict 92A quickly intensifying as it tracks over the Arabian Sea, and warm sea water temperatures.

The system is expected to track westward toward the Arabian Peninsula over the following 3-days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13-18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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