Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - N of Yuba City, California - United States

    9 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Blue Ridge Fire), California, United States

    9 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Silverado Fire), California, United States

    9 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Grand County (East Troublesome Fire), Colorado, United States

    9 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    9 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    10 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    10 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    10 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    19 minutes ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Vietnam

    42 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Java Province, Indonesia

    27 minutes ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Quang Nam Province, Vietnam

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern England, United Kingdom

    32 minutes ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    36 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    38 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    44 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    44 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lexington Park--California--Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Atlanta, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Dalton, GA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Atsani

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Piggott, AR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Cassville, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Zeta

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mobile, AL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Leonard Wood, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Antananarivo - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Ambatondrazaka, Toamasina - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Chattanooga, TN--GA Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Typhoon - Goni

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Newport, TN Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - South Shetland Islands

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 35 km W of Rauco, Chile

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - Easter Island region

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Karnataka, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 63 km N of La Serena, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 65 km SSW of Sola, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 123 km NNE of Atka, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southwestern Ethiopia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Laos

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - North Cotabato, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Guimbal, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bagerhat, Bangladesh

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Jamaica

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Monkeypox - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 12, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 138 NM north of Chichi Jima, Japan – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Nangka)…is located about 236 NM south-southwest of Hong Kong

 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_5d0.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/13/1800x1080.jpg

An area of low pressure, associated in part with the remnants of Norbert, is located less than 100 miles east-southeast of Socorro Island, Mexico. Satellite imagery and recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low has continued to become better defined, while associated showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized. If this recent development trend continues, then a short-lived tropical depression could form on Tuesday while the low moves slowly west-northwestward. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…hot…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…hot…70 percent

 

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

 

Western North Pacific

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/16W_120600sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom) – Final Warning

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, environmental analysis indicates unfavorable conditions with moderate 20-25 knot wind shear, convergence aloft and significant dry air entrainment.

TD 16W is forecast to track southeastward and expected to dissipate within 12 hours.

 

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Nangka)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1820.gif

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/18W_130000sair.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, upper air analysis reveals a favorable environment low wind shear, good equatorward outflow and expanding poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures,

The system will track generally westward through 72 hours as it intensifies to a peak of 55 knots by 24 hours. After 24 hours, the system will weaken as it tracks over Hainan Island and into the Gulf of Tonkin.

TS 18W will make landfall over northeast Vietnam near 60 hours and will weaken as it tracks inland…dissipating by 96 hours.

 

>>> There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 300 NM northwest of Palau.

According to the JTWC, the system is in a favorable environment for development with low <15 knot wind shear, poleward aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in some agreement that Invest 94W will continue to track northwestward, and making landfall in the central Philippines…before consolidating further in the South China Sea.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

North Indian Ocean

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91B, which is located approximately 106 NM south-southwest of Visakhapatnam, India

According to the JTWC, the system is in a marginally favorable environment for development with low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear, diffluence aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate a limited west-northwestward track over water, with imminent landfall.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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