CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 325 NM south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 18W…is located about 237 NM northwest of Manila, Philippines
Showers and thunderstorms, partially associated with the remnants of Norbert, are showing signs of organization a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves slowly to the west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, TS 16W is located within a marginal environment and is tracking equatorward, with strong 30-35 knot wind shear. Additionally, there is significant dry air entraining into the system.
TS 16W is forecast to turn south-southeastward through the forecast period. The storm will weaken steadily due to moderate to strong 20-30 knot wind shear and continued dry air entrainment , with dissipation anticipated by 36 hours.
After 72 hours, as the system tracks over warm sea surface temperatures and under decreasing wind shear, there is some potential for it to slowly regenerate.
Tropical Cyclone 18W
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, supported by low <10 knot wind shear, established equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures, TD 18W is moving through a highly favorable environment for development.
The system will track generally westward as it steadily strengthens to a peak intensity of 60 knots by 36 hours, due to continued favorable environmental conditions. Afterwards the system will shift to a west-northward track through 72 hours…gradually weakening as it tracks over Hainan Island into the Gulf of Tonkin.
Prior to 72 hours, TD 18W is expected to make landfall south of Hanoi, VN. In the extended period, TD 18W will turn west-northwest after landfall and rapidly weaken…as it tracks over the rugged terrain of North VN.
North Indian Ocean
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91B, which is located approximately 246 NM southeast of Visakhapatnam, India
According to the JTWC, the system is in a favorable environment for development with low <15 knot wind shear, diffluence aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that Invest 91B will continue to track westward as it slowly intensifies.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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