Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lexington Park--California--Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD Region, United States

    28 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    22 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Washington, DC--VA--MD Region, United States

    40 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Atlanta, GA Region, United States

    49 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Dalton, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Yuba City, California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Blue Ridge Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Silverado Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Grand County (East Troublesome Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Atsani

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Piggott, AR Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Cassville, MO Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Zeta

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mobile, AL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Leonard Wood, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Antananarivo - Madagascar

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Ambatondrazaka, Toamasina - Madagascar

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Chattanooga, TN--GA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Typhoon - Goni

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Newport, TN Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 35 km W of Rauco, Chile

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - Easter Island region

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Karnataka, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 63 km N of La Serena, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 65 km SSW of Sola, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 123 km NNE of Atka, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southwestern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Laos

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - North Cotabato, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Guimbal, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bagerhat, Bangladesh

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Jamaica

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Monkeypox - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 11, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 325 NM south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 18W…is located about 237 NM northwest of Manila, Philippines

 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_5d0.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/13/1800x1080.jpg

Showers and thunderstorms, partially associated with the remnants of Norbert, are showing signs of organization a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves slowly to the west-northwest or northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

 

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

 

Western North Pacific

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/16W.CHAN-HOM/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201011.1050.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.16WCHAN-HOM.35kts-998mb-314N-1421E.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, TS 16W is located within a marginal environment and is tracking equatorward, with strong 30-35 knot wind shear. Additionally, there is significant dry air entraining into the system.

TS 16W is forecast to turn south-southeastward through the forecast period. The storm will weaken steadily due to moderate to strong 20-30 knot wind shear and continued dry air entrainment , with dissipation anticipated by 36 hours.

After 72 hours, as the system tracks over warm sea surface temperatures and under decreasing wind shear, there is some potential for it to slowly regenerate.

 

 

Tropical Cyclone 18W

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1820.gif

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/18W_120000sair.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, supported by low <10 knot wind shear, established equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures, TD 18W is moving through a highly favorable environment for development.

The system will track generally westward as it steadily strengthens to a peak intensity of 60 knots by 36 hours, due to continued favorable environmental conditions. Afterwards the system will shift to a west-northward track through 72 hours…gradually weakening as it tracks over Hainan Island into the Gulf of Tonkin.

Prior to 72 hours, TD 18W is expected to make landfall south of Hanoi, VN. In the extended period, TD 18W will turn west-northwest after landfall and rapidly weaken…as it tracks over the rugged terrain of North VN.

North Indian Ocean

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91B, which is located approximately 246 NM southeast of Visakhapatnam, India

According to the JTWC, the system is in a favorable environment for development with low <15 knot wind shear, diffluence aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that Invest 91B will continue to track westward as it slowly intensifies.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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