Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    6 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Vietnam

    10 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lexington Park--California--Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD Region, United States

    50 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    44 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Washington, DC--VA--MD Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Atlanta, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Dalton, GA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Yuba City, California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Blue Ridge Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Orange County (Silverado Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Grand County (East Troublesome Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Atsani

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Piggott, AR Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Cassville, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Zeta

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mobile, AL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Leonard Wood, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Antananarivo - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Ambatondrazaka, Toamasina - Madagascar

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Chattanooga, TN--GA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Typhoon - Goni

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Newport, TN Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - South Shetland Islands

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 35 km W of Rauco, Chile

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - Easter Island region

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Karnataka, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 63 km N of La Serena, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 65 km SSW of Sola, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 123 km NNE of Atka, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southwestern Ethiopia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Laos

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - North Cotabato, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Guimbal, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bagerhat, Bangladesh

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Jamaica

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Monkeypox - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 10, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 190 NM south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 17W (Linfa)…is located about 133 NM east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam

 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_2d0.png

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/13/1800x1080.jpg

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located about 1700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula remain disorganized, and recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low’s circulation is starting to become elongated. Due to surrounding dry air and increasing upper-level winds, environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development of this low while it moves westward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

>>> Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with the remnants of Norbert. This system is forecast to move very little during the next couple of days, and little to no development is expected during that time. Some development appears possible by the middle of next week when the system begins to move toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

 

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

 

Western North Pacific

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1620.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/16W.CHAN-HOM/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201010.1840.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.16WCHAN-HOM.40kts-994mb-322N-1405E.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, environmental analysis reveals marginal conditions with strong wind shear and dry air entrainment.

TS 16W is forecast to slow down and turn southeastward to southward through the forecast period.

The storm is forecast to weaken through the forecast period due to strong 25-35 knot wind shear and dry air entrainment…with dissipation expected within 48 hours.

 

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1720.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/17W.LINFA/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201010.1840.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.17WLINFA.40kts-998mb-148N-1095E.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Linfa)

According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment with diffluent flow and low wind shear, Sea surface temperatures are conducive for further development.

The system will track generally westward through the remainder of the forecast period. Through 24 hours, the system will steadily intensify to 45 knots…making landfall near 24 hours south of Da Nang, VN.

Thereafter, increasing wind shear  and rugged terrain over VN will steadily weaken the storm until dissipation by 48 hours.

 

South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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