CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 190 NM south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 17W (Linfa)…is located about 133 NM east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located about 1700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula remain disorganized, and recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low’s circulation is starting to become elongated. Due to surrounding dry air and increasing upper-level winds, environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development of this low while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
>>> Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with the remnants of Norbert. This system is forecast to move very little during the next couple of days, and little to no development is expected during that time. Some development appears possible by the middle of next week when the system begins to move toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, environmental analysis reveals marginal conditions with strong wind shear and dry air entrainment.
TS 16W is forecast to slow down and turn southeastward to southward through the forecast period.
The storm is forecast to weaken through the forecast period due to strong 25-35 knot wind shear and dry air entrainment…with dissipation expected within 48 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 17W (Linfa)
According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment with diffluent flow and low wind shear, Sea surface temperatures are conducive for further development.
The system will track generally westward through the remainder of the forecast period. Through 24 hours, the system will steadily intensify to 45 knots…making landfall near 24 hours south of Da Nang, VN.
Thereafter, increasing wind shear and rugged terrain over VN will steadily weaken the storm until dissipation by 48 hours.
North Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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