Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - W of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Canary Islands - Spain

    7 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 19 km ENE of Hualien City, Taiwan

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Hurricane - Rick

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Puerto Quijarro, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    31 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of San Carlos, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    32 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Trinidad, El Beni - Bolivia

    33 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    43 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Pittsburg, KS Region, United States

    48 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    45 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 28 km SSW of Valparaíso, Chile

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Lake Charles, LA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Spassk Dalniy, Primorye - Russia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Fujin, Heilongjiang - China

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Yichun, Heilongjiang - China

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Alice Springs, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Newcastle Waters, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Astoria, OR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Yasur, Vanuatu

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Palma, Spain

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Sandwich Islands region

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km NE of Ak-Dovurak, Russia

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - South Sandwich Islands region

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 126 km S of Hihifo, Tonga

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Guatemala

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 62 km E of Waitara, New Zealand

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Bogor Regency, West Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Stroms - Semarang Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semisopochnoi, United States

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Maine, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola - North Kivu Province, DRC

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Floods - Davao Oriental Province, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uttarakhand, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Hanoi, Vietnam

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Langila, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Honduras and Nicaragua

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hispaniola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Agen, Aquitaine - France

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kerala, India

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Quang Binh Province, Vietnam

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 year ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 9, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Lionrock)…is located approximately 89 NM east-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Namtheun)…is located approximately 337 NM north-northwest of Enewetak

 

 

North Eastern Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized.

Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph south of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

North Central Pacific

North Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 22W (Lionrock)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22W_100000sair.jpg

20211009.134000.WP222021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.35kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 12)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 22W

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts an expansive system with the main convection offset westward of the low level circulation. An extensive rain band also extends eastward and southeastward of the circulation.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low (05-10 knot) wind shear, strong poleward outflow, and very warm sea surface temperatures. The cyclone is tracking along the southwestern periphery of the low- to mid-level reflection of the ridge to the northeast.

Environmental conditions remain favorable with strong poleward and equatorward outflow, low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, the primary hindrance is interaction with land, which is limiting intensification at this time.

TS Lionrock will continue on its current track up to 12 hours. Afterward, as the steering ridge builds and extends westward, the storm will track more westward then southwestward, making landfall over northern Vietnam southeast of Hanoi just after 18 hours.

The favorable environment will fuel intensification to a peak of 40 knots at 12 hours. Afterward, interaction with Vietnam and its rugged terrain will gradually then rapidly erode the system to dissipation by 48 hours after it crosses into Cambodia.

 

Tropical Cyclone 23W (Namtheun)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/23W_100000sair.jpg

Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 1)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 22W

 

>>> There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 434 NM east-northeast of Legazpi, Philipines

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts broad convection obscuring any sign of a low level circulation. The circulation has unraveled and become embedded in a broader and elongated circulation associated with 94W.

Environmental analysis indicates marginal conditions for development with good equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by strong (25-30 knot) wind shear.

Global models are in good agreement that 93W will diminish as invest 94W becomes the dominant cyclone.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

>>> There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W…located approximately 339 NM east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that invest 94W is one of two major vortices (the other one is 93W) in a monsoon depression in the Philippine Sea, with light winds near the center and much stronger winds 60+ NM to the north and south.

Environmental analysis indicates marginally favorable environment for development with very warm sea surface temperatures and both
poleward and equatorward out flow, offset by moderate (15-20 knot) wind shear.

Global models are in agreement that either 93W or 94W will intensify at the expense of the weaker one, then track generally northwestward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27-32 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

 

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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