Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - W of San Carlos, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Trinidad, El Beni - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    11 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Pittsburg, KS Region, United States

    16 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    13 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 28 km SSW of Valparaíso, Chile

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Lake Charles, LA Region, United States

    42 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Spassk Dalniy, Primorye - Russia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Fujin, Heilongjiang - China

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Yichun, Heilongjiang - China

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Alice Springs, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Newcastle Waters, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Canary Islands - Spain

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Puerto Quijarro, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Astoria, OR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Yasur, Vanuatu

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Rick

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Palma, Spain

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Sandwich Islands region

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 19 km ENE of Hualien City, Taiwan

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km NE of Ak-Dovurak, Russia

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - South Sandwich Islands region

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 126 km S of Hihifo, Tonga

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Guatemala

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 62 km E of Waitara, New Zealand

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Bogor Regency, West Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Stroms - Semarang Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semisopochnoi, United States

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Maine, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola - North Kivu Province, DRC

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Floods - Davao Oriental Province, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uttarakhand, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Hanoi, Vietnam

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Langila, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Honduras and Nicaragua

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hispaniola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Agen, Aquitaine - France

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kerala, India

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Quang Binh Province, Vietnam

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 year ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 8, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Lionrock)…is located approximately 217 NM east-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam

 

 

North Eastern Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

Recent satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south-southeast of Tehuantepec, Mexico.

However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph south of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

North Central Pacific

North Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 22W (Lionrock)

20211008.121000.WP222021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.35kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 8)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 22W

According to the JTWC…satellite and radar imagery shows convective banding wrapping into a defined low-level circulation center. Color composite
images also indicates improved convective structure with the center located just under the eastern edge of the core convection.

Surface observations over Hainan island are relatively weak with the exception of Haikou on the northern coast, which is reporting sustained winds of 21 knots gusting to 31 knots.

Environmental conditions remain favorable with strong poleward and equatorward outflow, low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, the primary hindrance is interaction with land, which is limiting intensification at this time.

TS 22W is expected to continue tracking slowly northwestward to north-northwestward through 24 hours as it tracks over Hainan Island. Slight intensification is anticipated prior to landfall, with a peak of 40 knots likely. After landfall, slight weakening back to 35 knots will occur.

After 24 hours, the system will turn west-northwestward to westward through 48 hours with a slight re-intensification to 40 knots. However, increasing wind shear over the Gulf of Tonkin should hamper significant development. After 48 hours, TS 22W will track west-southwestward as it tracks into northern Vietnam and Laos with dissipation expected by 96 hours.

 

>>> There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 951 NM north-northwest of Palau

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts an exposed, broad low-level circulation with extensive convection over the southern semicircle associated with convergent low-level westerlies.

upper-level analysis indicates a marginal environment with convergent northerly flow over the center, and low to moderate (10-20 knot) wind shear.

Global models indicate invest 93W will merge with invest 94W in the next few days. There is significant uncertainty in how these two systems will develop and merge, with high uncertainty in track motion as well.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30-35 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

>>> There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W…located approximately 680 NM east of Aparri, Philippines

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a broad, exposed low-level circulation with strong low-level convergence fueling extensive deep convection over the eastern semicircle. Recent microwave imagery reveals strong convective bands over the eastern and southern peripheries but
little evidence of a distinct low level center.

Global models indicate that invest 93W will merge with invest 94W over the next few days. There is significant uncertainty in how these two systems will
develop and merge with high uncertainty in track motion as well.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

 

There’s a third tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95W…located approximately 272 NM south of Wake Island

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a disorganized disturbance with waning convection. A second image shows a tightening low level circulation with higher winds (20 knots) offset over the eastern semicircle.

Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development, with robust poleward outflow, enhanced by upper lows to the northwest and northeast, low (5-10 knot) wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Numerical models are in general agreement that invest 95W will track west-northwestward and intensify over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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