Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - W of Spassk Dalniy, Primorye - Russia

    20 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Fujin, Heilongjiang - China

    21 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Yichun, Heilongjiang - China

    21 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    31 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Alice Springs, Northern Territory - Australia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Newcastle Waters, Northern Territory - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Canary Islands - Spain

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Puerto Quijarro, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of San Carlos, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Trinidad, El Beni - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Astoria, OR Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Yasur, Vanuatu

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Rick

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 28 km SSW of Valparaíso, Chile

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - La Palma, Spain

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Sandwich Islands region

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 19 km ENE of Hualien City, Taiwan

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km NE of Ak-Dovurak, Russia

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - South Sandwich Islands region

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 126 km S of Hihifo, Tonga

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Guatemala

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 62 km E of Waitara, New Zealand

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Bogor Regency, West Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Stroms - Semarang Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semisopochnoi, United States

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Maine, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola - North Kivu Province, DRC

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Floods - Davao Oriental Province, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uttarakhand, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Hanoi, Vietnam

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Langila, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Honduras and Nicaragua

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hispaniola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Agen, Aquitaine - France

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kerala, India

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Quang Binh Province, Vietnam

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 year ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 7, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Lionrock)…is located approximately 180 NM northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam

 

 

North Eastern Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

A tropical wave emerging over the Pacific coast of Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

North Central Pacific

North Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 22W (Lionrock)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22W_080000sair.jpg

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 4)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 22W

According to the JTWC…the tropical depression has slowly consolidated over the past twelve hours and has transitioned from a monsoon depression into a warm-core tropical system. Satellite imagery depicts exposed low-level cloud lines wrapping into a broad center with persistent core convection.

Environmental conditions remain favorable with moderate poleward and equatorward outflow and low (5-10 knot) wind shear. Sea surface temperatures are conducive for development.

Conditions should remain favorable through 24 hours with a peak intensity of 40 knots forecast at 24 hours, possibly slightly higher near the landfall time. After 24 hours, interaction with land is expected to hinder development with gradual weakening anticipated  as the system tracks across Hainan Island.

As the system emerges over the Gulf of Tonkin after 48 hours, re-intensification is unlikely due to land interaction and increasing northeasterly wind shear. After 72 hours, TD 22W will turn southwestward under a northeast-southwest oriented ridge. The system is expected to dissipate by 96 hours as it tracks inland over mountainous terrain.

 

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 450 NM west-northwest of Yap.

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, this system is embedded within the western periphery of a monsoon depression with strong, convergent low-level westerlies over the southern semicircle. Satellite imagery depicts an elongated disturbance with broad turning and multiple vortexes.

Upper-level analysis indicates a generally favorable environment with good equatorward outflow and low to moderate wind shear.

Global models indicate this monsoon depression will gradually consolidate into a tropical storm over the next 2-3 days as invest 93W merges with invest 94W. There is significant uncertainty in how these two systems will develop and merge with high uncertainty in track motion as well.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12-18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W…located approximately 430 NM north-northwest of Guam

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, this system is embedded within the northeastern periphery of a monsoon depression with strong, convergent low-level southwesterlies over the southern semicircle. Satellite imagery depicts multiple vortexes rotating around a center with disorganized deep convection associated with the convergent southwesterly flow shearing over the southeast quadrant due to moderate to strong (20-30 knots) northwesterly wind shear and broad equatorward outflow.

Environmental analysis indicates generally favorable conditions for development, with good equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, and low (10-15 knot) wind shear.

Despite the marginal conditions, a composite satellite image reveals some fragmented, shallow banding wrapping into a defined low-level circulation center.

Global models indicate this monsoon depression will gradually consolidate into a tropical storm over the next 2-3 days as invest 93W merges with invest 94W. There is significant uncertainty in how these two systems will develop and merge with high uncertainty in track motion as well.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12-18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> There’s a third tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95W…located approximately 289 NM south of Wake Island

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a tightening low level circulation with
higher winds (20 knots) offset to the eastern semicircle.

Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development, with robust poleward outflow, low (10-15 knot) wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Numerical models are in general agreement that invest 95W will track west-northwestward and intensify over the next 36 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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