CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
North Eastern Pacific
An area of low pressure is forecast to form off the coast of Central America and southern Mexico in a day or two.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
North Central Pacific
North Western Pacific
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92W…located approximately 271 NM east of Hue, Vietnam
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts broad, disorganized convection over an obscured, broad, and elongated low level circulation.
Environmental analysis depicts marginally favorable conditions for development with strong equatorward outflow and very warm sea surface temperatures, offset by moderate (15-20 knot) wind shear.
invest 92W has the characteristics of a monsoon depression, not only with the convective signature but with the surface wind field.
Global models are in overall agreement that 92W will continue to track generally northwestward with increasing spread to over 300 NM in just two days. GFS is the extreme outlier…looping the vortex back counterclockwise.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18-23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.
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