CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 03B (Shaheen-gulab)…is located approximately 218 NM north-northwest of Masirah Island – Final Warning
North Eastern Pacific
North Central Pacific
North Western Pacific
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92W…located approximately 136 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates deep convection offset to the west of a disorganized low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development, with robust equatorward outflow, low (10-15 knot) wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Numerical models are in general agreement that 92W will track west-northwestward and slightly intensify to a small tropical depression over the next 24 to 36 hours, as it moves across the southern Philippine Archipelago.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to medium.
Tropical Cyclone 03B (Shaheen-gulab) – Final Warning
Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 24)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 03B
According to the JTWC…the structure of TC 03B, having degraded significantly over the past day, has roared back to life over the last couple of hours, establishing a compact (85-nm) core with a tenuous, very small eye.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and enhanced infrared imagery showed that a nearly pinhole (5-7 NM) eye had developed, and while cloud-filled was still a significant improvement from even three hours ago.
Based on the rapidly improving structure of the system, the environment has very obviously improved. Sea surface temperatures are continuing to warm, with an even warmer tongue of water along the coast of Oman.
While moving through a very geographically confined region surrounded by dry, dusty air that has chipped away at the margins, the system continues to maintain a solid core of deep moisture, which is feeding development.
The system is expected to make landfall along the central northeast coast of Oman, in the vicinity of Al Suwayq around 12 hours. The overall environment is not expected to change much from that described above, and is expected to remain favorable throughout the short time the system has remaining over water.
Thus, if the core vortex can hold together and continue to fight off some expected dry air entrainment as it approaches the coastline, it should intensify a bit more before reaching land. The JTWC forecast calls for a brief intensification to a peak of 75 knots at landfall, with a small possibility of a higher peak before 12 hours. Once ashore the system is forecast to continue tracking towards the southeast and rapidly dissipate in the empty quarter by 36 hours.
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