CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 03B (Shaheen-gulab)…is located approximately 245 NM north-northeast of Masirah Island
North Eastern Pacific
A broad area of low pressure located about 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is only producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. While additional development is not expected over the next couple of days, environmental conditions by early next week could become a bit more conducive for slow development as it drifts westward through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
North Central Pacific
North Western Pacific
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92W…located approximately 719 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates a broad and consolidating area of rotation with flaring, disorganized convection. In addition there’s a broad and elongated circulation center, with a band of 15-20 knot winds extending from the north to southwest of the center, with cyclonic turning into the circulation.
The environment is favorable for development, characterized by low (5-10 knot) wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and good equatorward outlfow aloft.
Deterministic and ensemble models agree 92W will consolidate and intensify before reaching the Philippines within the next 24 to 36 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18-23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.
Tropical Cyclone 03B (Shaheen-gulab)
Sustained 65 knot winds…with gusts to 80 knots (as of Warning Number 20)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 03B
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a relatively compact, and well-defined circulation, with a cloud-filled and ragged eye feature. While in the visible the eye remains cloud-covered and ragged, and shows some signs of shear, a very well defined and vertically stacked microwave eye. convection is wrapping around the center, though weaker on the northern side.
TC 03B is forecast to continue tracking generally west-northwestward over the next 12 hours, then turn west and ultimately southwest through 36 hours. The system is expected to make landfall along the eastern coast of Oman, near Sohar.
All available data suggests that TC 03B is cocooned within a pocket of deep moisture, and while entrainment of some dry air and dust is to be expected, particularly from the north, model fields suggest this will have little impact since it will be confined to a very shallow layer near the surface.
All that to say that the system is expected to intensify to a peak of 75 knots by 24 hours. After landfall, the system will rapidly weaken and ultimately dissipate over the empty Quater region.
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