Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Hurricane - Rick

    42 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Alice Springs, Northern Territory - Australia

    9 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    9 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Newcastle Waters, Northern Territory - Australia

    10 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    10 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - La Palma, Spain

    27 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Canary Islands - Spain

    37 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 19 km ENE of Hualien City, Taiwan

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Puerto Quijarro, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of San Carlos, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Trinidad, El Beni - Bolivia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Pittsburg, KS Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 28 km SSW of Valparaíso, Chile

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Lake Charles, LA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Spassk Dalniy, Primorye - Russia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Fujin, Heilongjiang - China

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Yichun, Heilongjiang - China

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Astoria, OR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Yasur, Vanuatu

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Sandwich Islands region

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km NE of Ak-Dovurak, Russia

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - South Sandwich Islands region

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 126 km S of Hihifo, Tonga

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Guatemala

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 62 km E of Waitara, New Zealand

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Bogor Regency, West Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Stroms - Semarang Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semisopochnoi, United States

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Maine, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola - North Kivu Province, DRC

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Floods - Davao Oriental Province, Philippines

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uttarakhand, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Hanoi, Vietnam

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Langila, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Honduras and Nicaragua

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hispaniola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Agen, Aquitaine - France

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kerala, India

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Quang Binh Province, Vietnam

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 year ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 2, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 03B (Shaheen-gulab)…is located approximately 245 NM north-northeast of Masirah Island

 

 

North Eastern Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

A broad area of low pressure located about 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is only producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. While additional development is not expected over the next couple of days, environmental conditions by early next week could become a bit more conducive for slow development as it drifts westward through the middle of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

North Central Pacific

North Western Pacific

20211003.005000.WP922021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92W…located approximately 719 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates a broad and consolidating area of rotation with flaring, disorganized convection. In addition there’s a broad and elongated circulation center, with a band of 15-20 knot winds extending from the north to southwest of the center, with cyclonic turning into the circulation.

The environment is favorable for development, characterized by low (5-10 knot) wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and good equatorward outlfow aloft.

Deterministic and ensemble models agree 92W will consolidate and intensify before reaching the Philippines within the next 24 to 36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18-23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

 

Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Shaheen-gulab)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/03B_021800sair.jpg

Sustained 65 knot winds…with gusts to 80 knots (as of Warning Number 20)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 03B

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a relatively compact, and well-defined circulation, with a cloud-filled and ragged eye feature. While in the visible the eye remains cloud-covered and ragged, and shows some signs of shear, a very well defined and vertically stacked microwave eye. convection is wrapping around the center, though weaker on the northern side.

TC 03B is forecast to continue tracking generally west-northwestward over the next 12 hours, then turn west and ultimately southwest through 36 hours. The system is expected to make landfall along the eastern coast of Oman, near Sohar.

All available data suggests that TC 03B is cocooned within a pocket of deep moisture, and while entrainment of some dry air and dust is to be expected, particularly from the north, model fields suggest this will have little impact since it will be confined to a very shallow layer near the surface.

All that to say that the system is expected to intensify to a peak of 75 knots by 24 hours. After landfall, the system will rapidly weaken and ultimately dissipate over the empty Quater region.

 

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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