CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16E (Pamela)…is located about 170 miles west-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Namtheun)…is located approximately 156 NM south-southwest of Minami Tori Shima, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 24W (Kompasu)…is located approximately 202 NM south-southwest of Hong Kong
North Eastern Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 16E (Pamela)
PAMELA FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING
According to the NHC…Pamela is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin overnight and continue through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Restrengthening is expected overnight, and Pamela is forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon.
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango…4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur…2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma…3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
North Central Pacific
North Western Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Namtheun)
Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 13)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 23W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation with persistent deep convection sheared over the northern semicircle.
A microwave image indicates tightly-wrapped shallow banding wrapping into a ragged but defined center, however, the deep convective structure is fragmented and limited to the northeast quadrant.
The environment remains marginal with moderate southerly wind shear offset slightly by strong southerly upper-level flow.
TS 23W is tracking under the competing steering influence of a low-level ridge to the north, and a secondary steering ridge building to the southeast.
TS 23W should peak at 40 knots then steadily weaken as it tracks under strong upper level southwesterlies, and over cooler sea surface temperatures. Extra-tropical transition is unlikely so the system will likely dissipate by 96 hours or earlier.
Tropical Cyclone 24W (Kompasu)
Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 12)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 24W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a very large system with deep convective banding, primarily over the southern semicircle, wrapping into a large, ragged low-level circulation center. A microwave image indicates a well organized system with tightly-curved banding wrapping into a defined circulation.
Upper-level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with low to moderate wind shear offset by strong equatorward outflow.
Tropical storm 24W is forecast to track westward through the forecast period under the steering influence of the ridge. TS 24W will strengthen to a peak of 60 knots by 12 hours, then gradually weaken as wind shear increases.
As the system tracks over Hainan after 24 hours, it will weaken significantly with more rapid weakening expected, as the system makes landfall over Vietnam after 48 hours…with dissipation by 96 hours as the system tracks inland.
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