CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16E (Pamela)…is located about 400 miles south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Namtheun)…is located approximately 286 NM south of Minami Tori Shima, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 24W (Kompasu)…is located approximately 272 NM north-northwest of Manila, Philippines
North Eastern Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 16E (Pamela)
PAMELA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING…ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED BEFORE PAMELA REACHES MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY
According to the NHC…Pamela is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast to occur later tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the current track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is forecast to make landfall in southwestern mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane overnight or early Tuesday, and be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Tuesday afternoon.
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango…4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur…2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma…2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.
SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
North Central Pacific
North Western Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Namtheun)
Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 9)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 23W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows no significant change in the convective structure and degree of wrap in the last six hours.
Environmental analysis indicates marginally favorable conditions for development with strong poleward outflow, moderate to high wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
The marginally favorable conditions will promote a steady intensification to a peak of 65 knots by 72 hours at the ridge crest where wind shear will be at a minimum. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually decay the system down to 35 knots by 120 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 24W (Kompasu)
Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 8)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 24W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a very large monsoon depression with wide feeder bands reaching up to the East China Sea to the north, and down to the Sulu Sea to the south. The central convection has deepened.
Environmental analyses indicate marginally favorable conditions for development characterized by warm sea surface temperatures in the Luzon Strait and strong poleward outflow aloft offset by moderate wind shear and land interference from Luzon and Taiwan.
TS Kompasu will continue to track generally westward under the steering ridge into the South China Sea and across southern Hainan and the Gulf of Tonkin before making landfall just before 72 hours in northern Vietnam.
The marginally favorable environment will fuel slight intensification to a peak of 60 knots at 24 hours in the South China Sea where the environment is expected to be more favorable with lower wind shear.
After 24 hours, increasing wind shear and land interaction with Hainan will slowly weaken the system down to 35 knots at 72 hours. After landfall, frictional effects from the rugged Vietnamese terrain will rapidly erode the system down to 20 knots after it crosses Cambodia into Laos.
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