Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Flood - Lake Charles, LA Region, United States

    6 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Spassk Dalniy, Primorye - Russia

    31 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Fujin, Heilongjiang - China

    31 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Yichun, Heilongjiang - China

    32 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    42 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Alice Springs, Northern Territory - Australia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Newcastle Waters, Northern Territory - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Halls Creek, Western Australia - Australia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Canary Islands - Spain

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Puerto Quijarro, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of San Carlos, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Trinidad, El Beni - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Astoria, OR Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Yasur, Vanuatu

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Storm - Rick

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 28 km SSW of Valparaíso, Chile

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - La Palma, Spain

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Sandwich Islands region

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 19 km ENE of Hualien City, Taiwan

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km NE of Ak-Dovurak, Russia

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - South Sandwich Islands region

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 126 km S of Hihifo, Tonga

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Guatemala

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 62 km E of Waitara, New Zealand

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Bogor Regency, West Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Stroms - Semarang Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semisopochnoi, United States

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Maine, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola - North Kivu Province, DRC

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Floods - Davao Oriental Province, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uttarakhand, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Hanoi, Vietnam

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Langila, Papua New Guinea

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Honduras and Nicaragua

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hispaniola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Agen, Aquitaine - France

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kerala, India

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Quang Binh Province, Vietnam

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 year ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
October 11, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16E (Pamela)…is located about 400 miles south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Namtheun)…is located approximately 286 NM south of Minami Tori Shima, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 24W (Kompasu)…is located approximately 272 NM north-northwest of Manila, Philippines

 

 

North Eastern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 16E (Pamela)

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

20211012.020031.EP162021.abi.goes-17.Infrared-Gray.60kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

time of arrival graphic

PAMELA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING…ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED BEFORE PAMELA REACHES MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY

According to the NHCPamela is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast to occur later tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the current track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is forecast to make landfall in southwestern mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane overnight or early Tuesday, and be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Tuesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango…4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur…2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma…2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

North Central Pacific

North Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 23W (Namtheun)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/23W_120000sair.jpg

Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 9)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 23W

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows no significant change in the convective structure and degree of wrap in the last six hours.

Environmental analysis indicates marginally favorable conditions for development with strong poleward outflow, moderate to high wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

The marginally favorable conditions will promote a steady intensification to a peak of 65 knots by 72 hours at the ridge crest where wind shear will be at a minimum. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually decay the system down to 35 knots by 120 hours.

 

Tropical Cyclone 24W (Kompasu)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/24W_120000sair.jpg

Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 8)

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 24W

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a very large monsoon depression with wide feeder bands reaching up to the East China Sea to the north, and down to the Sulu Sea to the south. The central convection has deepened.

Environmental analyses indicate marginally favorable conditions for development characterized by warm sea surface temperatures in the Luzon Strait and strong poleward outflow aloft offset by moderate wind shear and land interference from Luzon and Taiwan.

TS Kompasu will continue to track generally westward under the steering ridge into the South China Sea and across southern Hainan and the Gulf of Tonkin before making landfall just before 72 hours in northern Vietnam.

The marginally favorable environment will fuel slight intensification to a peak of 60 knots at 24 hours in the South China Sea where the environment is expected to be more favorable with lower wind shear.

After 24 hours, increasing wind shear and land interaction with Hainan will slowly weaken the system down to 35 knots at 72 hours. After landfall, frictional effects from the rugged Vietnamese terrain will rapidly erode the system down to 20 knots after it crosses Cambodia into Laos.

 

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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