CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16E (Pamela)…is located about 505 miles south of Mazatlan, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Lionrock)…is located approximately 41 NM east-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Namtheun)…is located approximately 394 NM south-southeast of Minami Tori Shima, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 24W (Kompasu)…is located approximately 298 NM northeast of Manila, Philippines
North Eastern Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 16E (Pamela)
PAMELA STRENGTHENING…HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED TOMORROW
According to the NHC…Pamela is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Monday. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night and increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Pamela is forecast to be a hurricane by late tomorrow, and could be a major hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
North Central Pacific
North Western Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Lionrock) – Final Warning
Sustained 25 knot winds…with gusts to 35 knots (as of Warning Number 13)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 22W
According to the JTWC…a composite radar loop and surface observations in Vietnam indicate TD 22W has made landfall near Cat Bi International Airport.
TD Lionrock is expected to continue tracking inland and erode rapidly and dissipate by 12 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Namtheun)
Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 5)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 23W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows improved convection over a previously partially-exposed low level circulation. A wide swath of fragmented formative banding is wrapping in from the east side.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with robust radial outflow, low to moderate wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. The cyclone is tracking along the southern periphery of an eastern extension of the low- to mid-layer of the ridge to the northwest.
TS Namtheun will continue on its current track up to 48 hours. Afterward, a secondary ridge to the east-southeast will assume steering and drive the system poleward, crest the str axis near 72 hours, then recurve it northeastward.
The favorable conditions will promote a steady intensification to a peak of 65 knots by 72 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually decay the system down to 40 knots by 120 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 24W (Kompasu)
Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 4)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 24W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a very large monsoon
depression with the central convection offset 40+ NM poleward from a broad, fully exposed, but well-defined low level circulation. The circulation has veered and began to track northwestward. Its central convection trails large swaths of formative rain bands extending all the way down to the southern Philippines.
Environmental analyses indicate marginally favorable conditions for development characterized by warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea and strong poleward outflow aloft offset by strong (25-35 knot) wind shear.
TS Kompasu will continue on its current track up to 12 hours. Afterward, the ridge is expected to build and extend westward and drive the system due westward through the Luzon Strait, into the South China Sea, across Hainan and the Gulf of Tonkin before making landfall in northern Vietnam just before 96 hours.
The marginally favorable environment will fuel gradual intensification to a peak of 70 knots in the South China sea, where the environment is expected to be more favorable. Afterward, increasing wind shear will slowly weaken the system down to 45 knots just before landfall. After 96 hours, interaction with the rugged Vietnamese terrain will rapidly erode the system down to 30 knots after it crosses into Cambodia.
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