CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle)…is located approximately 273 NM southeast of Misawa, Japan – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 03B (Shaheen-gulab)…is located approximately 218 NM west-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan
North Eastern Pacific
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
>>> A trough of low pressure is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Development of this system is no longer anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions as it moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent
North Central Pacific
North western Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Mindulle) – Final Warning
Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 38)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 20W
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts the system continued to gradually decay as evidenced by unraveling rain bands and warming central convection. The northern peripheries have elongated with exposure to the strong prevailing westerlies.
Analysis indicates the environment is unfavorable with increasing wind shear, cooling sea surface temperatures, and the influx of cold dry air at the lower levels. The cyclone is tracking along the northwestern periphery of the ridge to the southeast.
Typhoon Mindulle will continue on its current track for the remainder of the forecast, and the unfavorable environment will continue to weaken the system. Concurrently, by 12 hours, it will begin extra-tropical transition and by 30 hours will transform into a 40-knot cold core low with an expansive wind field as it passes southeast of the Kuril Islands.
Tropical Cyclone 03B (Shaheen-gulab)
Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 16)
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 03B
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a consolidating system with feeder bands, mostly from the southern periphery, wrapping tighter into an obscured low level circulation under deep central convection with a formative eye.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a medium equatorward outflow. The cyclone is tracking along the southern periphery of the ridge to the north.
TC Gulab will continue on its current tracktoward the Gulf of Oman up to 48 hours, under the steering influence of the ridge. Afterward, as the ridge builds, it will drive the cyclone southwestward into Oman, making landfall just north of Muscat around 54 hours.
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