Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    9 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    8 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    8 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    8 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    9 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    9 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    9 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    9 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    17 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    35 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    36 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 138km ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    11 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    17 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    20 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
November 30, 2019

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Kammuri)…located approximately 594 NM east of Manila, Philippines

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

 

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Kammuri) will be a typhoon as it approaches the east coast of the Philippine Islands. The system will bring heavy weather to the area of impact and inland from there…along with high surf and storm surge.

Sustained winds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots…as of Warning 22

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, analysis indicates the storm is in a marginally favorable environment for development, with low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, offset by warm sea surface temperatures, very high ocean heat content, and robust poleward and equatorward outflow aloft.

Kammuri will track westward…with landfall in the Philippines. The environment will remain marginal, and typhoon 29W will intensify to a peak of 100 knots by 48 hours.

After 48 hours, the typhoon will begin to pass over Luzon, where it will begin to weaken due to the frictional effects of land interaction…with possible dry air entrainment leading to a further decay of intensity.

The storm will continue to track generally westward and move into the South China Sea, where it will begin to track southwestward and weaken significantly, as it begins to interact with a strong northeast surge event.

 

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 95W, located approximately 233 NM east of Chuuk.

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, 95W is currently in a marginal environment, for development, with high 30-40 knot wind shear, offset by warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 95W will track generally westward and continue to consolidate over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

 

Meanwhile, there’s a second tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 84 NM southwest of Mahe, Seychelles

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, analysis indicates a moderately favorable environment for development, with low <15 knot wind shear, and moderate westward outflow.

Sea surface temperatures remain favorable.

Global models predict that 91S will steadily intensify and track southward down towards the west coast of Madagascar.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

Finally, there’s a third tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90A, which is located approximately 759 NM east-northeast of Mogadishu, Somalia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates a marginal environment for potential development, with warm sea surface temperatures, and good westward outflow…and moderate 15-20 knot wind shear.

Global models are in disagreement in regards to 90A.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

 

Northeast Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s an animated color enhanced satellite image of the central and eastern Pacific

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

2019 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2019 hurricane season featured five tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility, which is near the season average. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year.

Hurricane Erick was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the Central Pacific, moving into the basin from the east on July 30. Erick rapidly intensified to a major hurricane (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) later that day, then steadily weakened as it passed far south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Tropical Storm Flossie entered the basin on August 3 and approached Hawaii from the east, eventually dissipating before reaching the islands. Tropical Depression 12-E entered the basin on September 4 and strengthened to Tropical Storm Akoni. Akoni was the first tropical cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names since Hurricane Walaka in 2018. Tropical Depression Kiko entered the basin on September 24 and immediately dissipated. Tropical Storm Ema, the second cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names, developed southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands on October 12. Ema dissipated over the southern portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument shortly before crossing between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Swells from Tropical Cyclone Barbara, which dissipated just before crossing into the Central Pacific basin, led to high surf along east facing shores of the state during July 6-9. Remnant moisture from Barbara also led to heavy rain across Maui and Hawaii Counties during July 8-11. Swells generated by Tropical Cyclones Erick and Flossie led to high surf along east and south facing shores during August 1-6. Moisture associated with Erick also contributed to heavy rain over Hawaii County on August 2, and across Kauai County during August 4-5.

Hurricane Season Outlook: NOAA’s 2019 hurricane season outlook issued on May 22, 2019, called for five to eight tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin, with a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The 2019 season started with an El Niño event that was expected to last through the fall. Instead, steady cooling commenced early in the summer leading to neutral conditions by the heart of the hurricane season.

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone  29W (Kammuri)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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