Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    21 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    17 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    23 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    28 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    30 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    30 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    30 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    38 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    38 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    38 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    38 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    38 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    38 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 138km ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    23 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
November 28, 2019

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Kammuri)…located approximately 998 NM east of Manila, Philippines

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

 

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Kammuri) will become a dangerous almost super typhoon as it approaches the east coasts of the Philippine Islands…although should be on a weakening trend as it gets closer to land. Nonetheless, the storm will bring very heavy weather to the area of impact and inland from there, along with high surf and storm surge.

Sustained winds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots…as of Warning 14

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, environmental analysis indicates an overall favorable environment, with slightly offset westward and poleward outflow, low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and very warm along-track sea surface temperatures…over the Philippine Sea.

Kammuri will track north-northwestward and becoming nearly stationary…then slowly moving westward again.

The overall favorable environment will likely fuel intensification to near 105 knots by 72 hours.

After 72 hours, TY 29W will continue to track westward, before making landfall east of Manila, Philippines in around 120 hours.

Moderate shear, dry air and convergence aloft are possible contributors to decreased intensity after 96 hours. TY 29W will be further hampered by frictional effects due to land interaction around 120 hours.

 

 

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 96W, located approximately 331 NM north-northwest of Guam.

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, 96W is currently in an unfavorable environment, with good equatorward outflow offset by overhead convergence from typhoon 29W’s outflow.

96W is experiencing unfavorable 25-30 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 96W will track generally northward, before getting caught in between two subtropical ridges…without much intensification.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

 

Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 190 NM south-southwest of Mahe, Seychelles

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, analysis indicates a favorable environment with low to moderate 5-15 knot wind shear, marginal divergence aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in fair agreement that 91S will continue to strengthen and may reach warning criteria in about 3-days…as it generally tracks southwestward towards Madagascar.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

 

Finally, there’s a third tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90A, which is located approximately 646 NM east of Mogadishu, Somalia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, analysis indicates a marginal potential for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, and marginal westward outflow…offset by high 20-30 knot wind shear.

Global models show some development between 96-120 hours, as the circulation makes landfall over Somalia.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

 

Northeast Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s an animated color enhanced satellite image of the central and eastern Pacific

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

2019 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2019 hurricane season featured five tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility, which is near the season average. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year.

Hurricane Erick was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the Central Pacific, moving into the basin from the east on July 30. Erick rapidly intensified to a major hurricane (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) later that day, then steadily weakened as it passed far south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Tropical Storm Flossie entered the basin on August 3 and approached Hawaii from the east, eventually dissipating before reaching the islands. Tropical Depression 12-E entered the basin on September 4 and strengthened to Tropical Storm Akoni. Akoni was the first tropical cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names since Hurricane Walaka in 2018. Tropical Depression Kiko entered the basin on September 24 and immediately dissipated. Tropical Storm Ema, the second cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names, developed southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands on October 12. Ema dissipated over the southern portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument shortly before crossing between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Swells from Tropical Cyclone Barbara, which dissipated just before crossing into the Central Pacific basin, led to high surf along east facing shores of the state during July 6-9. Remnant moisture from Barbara also led to heavy rain across Maui and Hawaii Counties during July 8-11. Swells generated by Tropical Cyclones Erick and Flossie led to high surf along east and south facing shores during August 1-6. Moisture associated with Erick also contributed to heavy rain over Hawaii County on August 2, and across Kauai County during August 4-5.

Hurricane Season Outlook: NOAA’s 2019 hurricane season outlook issued on May 22, 2019, called for five to eight tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin, with a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The 2019 season started with an El Niño event that was expected to last through the fall. Instead, steady cooling commenced early in the summer leading to neutral conditions by the heart of the hurricane season.

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone  29W (Kammuri)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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