Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    24 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Telica, Nicaragua

    28 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    40 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    54 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Port Douglas, Queensland - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Aweil, North Bahr-al-Ghazal - South Sudan

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Irvine (Bond Fire), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bojonegoro, East Java, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Garut Town, West Java, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Prabumulih, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - South Korea

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Switzerland

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southern Switzerland

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Olmue Commune (La Bodeguilla Fire), Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Maria Pinto and Melipilla Communes (Mallarauco Fire), Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern Sri Lanka

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern India

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern India

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Queensland (Fraser Island Fire), Australia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - San Diego County (Willow Fire), California, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Riverside (Cerritos Fire), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwest Territories, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Haines, Alaska

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Paz, Bolivia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Vietnam

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Thailand

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Philippines

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Burevi

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 45 km NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Richmond, VA Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 75 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 76 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Iraq

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - central East Pacific Rise

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Croatia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tarija, Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
November 15, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01S (Alicia)…is located approximately 428 NM south of Diego Garcia
 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/EPAC/98E.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20201115.1400.goes17.x.vis1km_high.98EINVEST.25kts-1009mb-133N-1070W.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing…for what’s being referred to as Invest 98E

Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms remain displaced well to the southeast of a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to remain marginally conducive for development over the next couple of days or so as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. Thereafter, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low…30 percent

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco) Final Warning

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2520.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/25W.VAMCO/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201115.1430.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.25WVAMCO.40kts-996mb-183N-1056E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, composite radar loops and numerous surface wind observations including those from Vinh, Dong Hoi, and Savannakhet AP, indicate TY 25W has made landfall.

The rugged terrain of Indochina Peninsula, plus the entrainment of cool dry continental air will rapidly erode the system, as it drags further inland across central Vietnam and central Laos…leading to dissipation within 24 hours as it enters Thailand.

 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Alicia)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0121.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/01S.ALICIA/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201115.1430.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.01SALICIA.60kts-986mb-136S-733E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, the system is in a favorable environment, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, and strong westward and poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

The favorable environment will fuel steady intensification to a peak of 65 knots within 12 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually erode the cyclone  toward dissipation by 96 hours.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/93S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201115.1430.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.93SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-91S-678E.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 328 NM west-southwest of Diego Garcia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, Invest 93S is located in a marginal environment, with poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by high 30-40 knot wind shear.

Models generally agree that the system will remain at its current intensity as it interacts with TC Alicia, and losing strength before turning south-southwestward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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