Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - SW of Aweil, North Bahr-al-Ghazal - South Sudan

    34 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    36 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    43 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Telica, Nicaragua

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Port Douglas, Queensland - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Irvine (Bond Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bojonegoro, East Java, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Garut Town, West Java, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Prabumulih, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - South Korea

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Olmue Commune (La Bodeguilla Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Maria Pinto and Melipilla Communes (Mallarauco Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern Sri Lanka

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Queensland (Fraser Island Fire), Australia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - San Diego County (Willow Fire), California, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Riverside (Cerritos Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwest Territories, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Haines, Alaska

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Paz, Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Vietnam

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Thailand

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Philippines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Burevi

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 45 km NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Richmond, VA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 75 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Iraq

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - central East Pacific Rise

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Croatia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tarija, Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
November 14, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)…is located approximately 70 NM north-northwest of Da Nang, Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone 01S (Alicia)…is located approximately 311 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia
 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/EPAC/98E.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20201114.1430.goes17.x.vis1km_high.98EINVEST.20kts-1009mb-134N-1088W.100pc.jpg

A broad and disorganized area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico is producing limited shower activity.

Here’s what the computer models are showing…for what’s being referred to as Invest 98E

Environmental conditions are still forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. By late next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2520.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/25W.VAMCO/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201114.1450.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.25WVAMCO.95kts-963mb-164N-1094E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates favorable dynamics with robust dual channel outflow, with low 5-10 knot wind shear. However, the system is drifting over cool sea surface temperatures…which are offsetting the favorable outflow and warm seas.

TY Vamco will continue on its west-northwestward track, making landfall over central Vietnam northwest of Hue shortly after 12 hours. After landfall, the rugged terrain will rapidly erode the system down to 35 knots by 24 hours, and dissipation is expected by 36 hours…after it crosses Vietnam, central Laos, and into Thailand.

 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Alicia)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0121.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/01S.ALICIA/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201114.1430.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.01SALICIA.50kts-994mb-95S-772E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, the system is in a favorable environment, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, and strong westward and poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

The favorable environment will fuel steady intensification to a peak of 70 knots at 24-36 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually erode the cyclone  toward dissipation by 120 hours.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/93S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201114.1430.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.93SINVEST.15kts-1007mb-76S-676E.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 345 NM west-southwest of Diego Garcia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, Invest 93S is located in a marginal environment, with moderate poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by high 30+ knot wind shear.

Models are in good agreement that the system will continue to track westward towards Diego Garcia over the next hours, although with minimal intensification due to the hostile shear environment.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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