Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - SW of Aweil, North Bahr-al-Ghazal - South Sudan

    39 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    42 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    49 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Telica, Nicaragua

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Port Douglas, Queensland - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Irvine (Bond Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bojonegoro, East Java, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Garut Town, West Java, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Prabumulih, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - South Korea

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Olmue Commune (La Bodeguilla Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Maria Pinto and Melipilla Communes (Mallarauco Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern Sri Lanka

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Queensland (Fraser Island Fire), Australia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - San Diego County (Willow Fire), California, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Riverside (Cerritos Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwest Territories, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Haines, Alaska

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Paz, Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Vietnam

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Thailand

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Philippines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Burevi

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 45 km NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Richmond, VA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 75 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Iraq

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - central East Pacific Rise

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Croatia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tarija, Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
November 12, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)…is located approximately 417 NM east of Da Nang, Vietnam
 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

An area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system drifts slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2520.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/25W.VAMCO/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201112.1350.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.25WVAMCO.75kts-979mb-152N-1174E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC advisory 16, environmental analysis reveals a marginal environment, with low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear, and moderate equatorward and westward outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures remain warm.

TY Vamco will track westward through 24 hours, before assuming a more northwestward track through 72 hours. The system is expected to make landfall north of Hue around 60 hours…with no significant change in strength through 24 hours.

After 24 hours, sea surface temperatures will cool, and higher wind shear will combine to start a steady weakening trend through landfall. After landfall, terrain interaction over central Vietnam and Laos will quickly weaken the system.

After 72 hours, TY Vamco will rapidly dissipate as it tracks northwestward over the mountainous terrain. dissipating over northern Laos within 96 hours.

 

South Indian Ocean

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/92S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201112.1410.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.92SINVEST.25kts-1006mb-45S-877E.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92S, which is located approximately 925 NM east-northeast of Diego Garcia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, the environment is favorable with low 10-20 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures…and excellent radial outflow aloft.

The models are in good agreement that Invest 92S will continue to track west-southwestward, and intensifying to warning threshold over the next 12-24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23-27 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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