CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)…is located approximately 417 NM east of Da Nang, Vietnam
An area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system drifts slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC advisory 16, environmental analysis reveals a marginal environment, with low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear, and moderate equatorward and westward outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures remain warm.
TY Vamco will track westward through 24 hours, before assuming a more northwestward track through 72 hours. The system is expected to make landfall north of Hue around 60 hours…with no significant change in strength through 24 hours.
After 24 hours, sea surface temperatures will cool, and higher wind shear will combine to start a steady weakening trend through landfall. After landfall, terrain interaction over central Vietnam and Laos will quickly weaken the system.
After 72 hours, TY Vamco will rapidly dissipate as it tracks northwestward over the mountainous terrain. dissipating over northern Laos within 96 hours.
South Indian Ocean
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92S, which is located approximately 925 NM east-northeast of Diego Garcia
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, the environment is favorable with low 10-20 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures…and excellent radial outflow aloft.
The models are in good agreement that Invest 92S will continue to track west-southwestward, and intensifying to warning threshold over the next 12-24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23-27 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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