Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    48 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Telica, Nicaragua

    52 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Port Douglas, Queensland - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Aweil, North Bahr-al-Ghazal - South Sudan

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Irvine (Bond Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bojonegoro, East Java, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Garut Town, West Java, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Prabumulih, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - South Korea

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Switzerland

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southern Switzerland

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Olmue Commune (La Bodeguilla Fire), Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Maria Pinto and Melipilla Communes (Mallarauco Fire), Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern Sri Lanka

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Queensland (Fraser Island Fire), Australia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - San Diego County (Willow Fire), California, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Riverside (Cerritos Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwest Territories, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Haines, Alaska

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Paz, Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Vietnam

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Thailand

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Philippines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Burevi

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 45 km NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Richmond, VA Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 75 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 76 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Iraq

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - central East Pacific Rise

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Croatia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tarija, Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
November 11, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)…is located approximately 89 NM west-northwest of Manila, Philippines
 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico late this week.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for slow development through the weekend and early next week as the system drifts slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2520.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/25W.VAMCO/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201111.1350.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.25WVAMCO.90kts-970mb-146N-1229E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates the system remains in  favorable area, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, and strong radial outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea remain warm and favorable. However, the system is now poised to make landfall into the rugged terrain of Luzon.

TY Vamco will track toward central Luzon, making landfall  over the Province of Bulacan in around 6 hours. then drag across Pampanga and Zambales, before exiting into the South China Sea shortly after 12 hours. Afterward, it will track westward.

Land interaction will mainly weaken it to 65 knots by 24 hours after it exits into the South China Sea. The warm waters and favorable wind shear will fuel a gradual intensification to a secondary peak of 70 knots at 36-48 hours. Afterward, TY 25W will track more west-northwestward over cooling waters in the western South China Sea that will weaken it to 45 knots by 72 hours…as it approaches Vietnam.

After 72 hours, TY Vamco will track west-northwestward, making landfall over central Vietnam, just north of Hue around 90 hours. Sea surface temperatures drop near Vietnam. These, plus the rugged terrain will rapidly erode the system to 25 knots by 96 hours after landfall, then to eventual dissipation by 120 hours after it crosses into central Laos.

 

South Indian Ocean

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/92S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201111.1350.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.92SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-55S-914E.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92S, which is located approximately 968 NM east of Diego Garcia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, the environment is favorable for further development, with low <15 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures…and moderate outflow aloft.

The models are in general agreement that Invest 92S will continue to consolidate as it tracks southwestward over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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