Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - SW of Aweil, North Bahr-al-Ghazal - South Sudan

    46 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    49 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    56 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Telica, Nicaragua

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Port Douglas, Queensland - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Irvine (Bond Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bojonegoro, East Java, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Garut Town, West Java, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Prabumulih, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - South Korea

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Olmue Commune (La Bodeguilla Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Maria Pinto and Melipilla Communes (Mallarauco Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern Sri Lanka

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Queensland (Fraser Island Fire), Australia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - San Diego County (Willow Fire), California, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Riverside (Cerritos Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwest Territories, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Haines, Alaska

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Paz, Bolivia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Vietnam

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Thailand

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Philippines

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Burevi

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 45 km NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Richmond, VA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 75 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Iraq

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - central East Pacific Rise

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Croatia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tarija, Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
November 10, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24W (Etau)…is located approximately 178 NM northeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)…is located approximately 203 NM east of Manila, Philippines
 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_5d0.png

A broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico late this week.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for slow development through the weekend as this system drifts slowly west-northwest over the east Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Western North Pacific

 

Tropical Cyclone 24W (Etau) Final Warning

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2420.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/ATL/29L.ETA/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20201110.1330.goes17.x.vis1km_high.29LETA.50kts-992mb-226N-853W.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has made landfall over southern Vietnam just north of Cam Ranh Airport.

TS 24W is expected to track further inland and dissipate within 12 hours, as it crosses into Cambodia, mostly due to the frictional effects brought on by the rugged terrain.

 

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2520.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/25W.VAMCO/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201110.1350.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.25WVAMCO.50kts-995mb-140N-1267E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates the system remains in  favorable area, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, and strong radial outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea remain warm.

TS Vamco will track westward toward the Philippines, passing just to the north of Camarines Norte before making landfall over the Province of Bulacan around 30 hours. Afterward, it will drag across the National Capital region just north of Manila before exiting into the South China Sea around 36 hours.

The favorable environment will fuel a rapid intensification to 80  knots by 24 hours just before landfall. Afterwards, land interaction will erode the system down to 70 knots as it exits into the warm South China Sea, where it will re-consolidate and strengthen slightly to 75 knots by 72 hours.

After 72 hours, TS Vamco will track west-northwestward, making landfall over central Vietnam, south of Da Nang just after 96 hours. As the system tracks further west over the South China Sea, decreasing sea surface temperatures will weaken the system down to 50 knots by 96 hours…before landfall.

Afterward, the rugged terrain will rapidly erode the system down to 30 knots by 120 hours…after it crosses into Laos.

 

South Indian Ocean

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/92S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201110.1350.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.92SINVEST.15kts-1007mb-36S-912E.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92S, which is located approximately 1137 NM east of Diego Garcia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, the environment continues to be favorable for development, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures…and moderate equatorward and poleward outflow aloft.

The models agree that Invest 92S will continue to slowly consolidate as it tracks southwestward over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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