Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - SW of Aweil, North Bahr-al-Ghazal - South Sudan

    32 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    35 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    42 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Telica, Nicaragua

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Port Douglas, Queensland - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Irvine (Bond Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bojonegoro, East Java, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Garut Town, West Java, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Prabumulih, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - South Korea

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southern Switzerland

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Olmue Commune (La Bodeguilla Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Maria Pinto and Melipilla Communes (Mallarauco Fire), Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern Sri Lanka

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Queensland (Fraser Island Fire), Australia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - San Diego County (Willow Fire), California, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Riverside (Cerritos Fire), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwest Territories, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Haines, Alaska

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Paz, Bolivia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Vietnam

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Thailand

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Philippines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Burevi

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 45 km NNW of San Antonio de los Cobres, Argentina

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Richmond, VA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 75 km WSW of Masachapa, Nicaragua

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Iraq

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Greece

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - central East Pacific Rise

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Croatia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tarija, Bolivia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
November 1, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Goni)…is located approximately 147 NM west of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)…is located approximately 439 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines
 

Northeast Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EEP/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EEP-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Western North Pacific

 

Tropical Cyclone 22W (Goni)

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/22W.GONI/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201101.0910.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.22WGONI.60kts-990mb-141N-1212E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models showing

According to the JTWC, upper air analysis reveals a marginal environment, with moderate low 20-25 knot wind shear, and partially offset by good radial outflow.

TS 22W will continue on its current track, re-consolidate, then track more westward. The marginal upper level dynamics combined with frictional effects from the islands will continue to weaken TS Goni to 50 knots by 24 hours.

Afterwards, the addition of cooling sea surface temperatures and increased westward outflow will moderate the environment, resulting in generally sustained 50 knot intensity with a slight peak to 55 knots by 48 hours.
Beyond 72 hours, Goni will track west-southwestward, making a landfall over southern Vietnam near Qui Nohn within 96 hours. Cooling sea surface temperatures and land interaction will primarily erode the system to dissipation by 120 knots.

Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/23W.ATSANI/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201101.0910.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.23WATSANI.30kts-1004mb-169N-1315E.100pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models show

According to the JTWC, the environment is overall unfavorable, with moderate 20-25 knot wind shear and weak outflow aloft, offset slightly by warm sea surface temperatures.

TD 23W will continue on its current track in the Philippine Sea, although remain in a nearly stationary state up to 72 hours. The environment is forecast to improve as wind shear weakens and poleward outflow increases, fueling a steady intensification to 65 knots by 72 hours.

In the extended forecast, the system will move westward. Environmental conditions are forecast to improve, with decreased wind shear and the addition of an equatorward outflow channel. These conditions, coupled with continued warm sea surface temperatures, will allow for further intensification to 80 knots…as it approaches the Luzon Strait.

Afterwards, increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures in the Luzon Strait and into the South China Sea will gradually weaken the system down to 70 knots by 120 hours.

 

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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