CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04W is located approximately 698 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 02E is located approximately 535 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico
Eastern north Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 02E
What the computer models are showing
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A gradual reduction in forward speed is forecast by mid-week.
On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone should remain well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm overnight.
>>> Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains disorganized.
The system is forecast to move generally westward at 5 to 10 mph into a drier and more stable airmass during the next couple of days with little, if any, further development expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Tropical Cyclone 04W
Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 6)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a deep consolidated central ball of convection wrapping around a low level circulation.
TS 04W remains in a favorable environment with fair westward and equatorward outflow, low (5-10kts) wind shear aloft, and very warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.
TS 04W will track more northwestward over the next 72 hours under the steering influence of the ridge. The system will gradually intensify under the aforementioned favorable conditions, and by 72 hours…will reach 60 knots.
Afterward, intensification will be more gradual as wind shear becomes more moderate (15-20 knots), and by 72 hours will reach 60 knots.
The favorable conditions will persist and intensify the cyclone slightly, to a peak intensity of 65 knots by 96 hours. Afterward, as it becomes exposed to increased poleward outflow, associated with the prevailing westerlies under the polar front jet, TS 04W will rapidly decay due to increasing wind shear to 45 knots by 120 hours.
There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 445 NM southwest of Guam.
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals upper level turning and flaring convection without a discernible low level circulation center.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment for development characterized by low to moderate (10-20 knot) wind shear, equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models generally agree that invest 90W will lose strength as it propagates northwestward. HWRF indicates minor development over the next 48 hours and reaching warning criteria by 72 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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