Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - W of Kahemba, Bandundu - Congo (Kinshasa)

    8 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Tshikapa, Kasa-Occidental - Congo (Kinshasa)

    8 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Lucapa, Lunda Norte - Angola

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    12 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfires - British Columbia (East of Skuppah Fire), Canada

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Utah County (Bennion Creek Fire), Utah, United States

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Carbon County (Crooked Creek Fire), Montana, United States

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Powell (Robertson Draw Fire), Wyoming - United States

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Helena (Deep Creek Fire), Montana - United States

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Graham County (Pinnacle Fire), Arizona, United States

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Moab (Pack Creek Fire), Utah - United States

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Pinal and Gila Counties (Telegraph Fire), Arizona, United States

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - New Zealand

    23 minutes ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Tulungagung Regency, East Java, Indonesia

    40 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Phatthalung, Thailand

    46 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Potential Tropical Cyclone - Three

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Oaxaca, Mexico

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Denmark

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Latvia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Western Poland

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Portugal

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tasmania, Australia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Goias, Brazil

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Port-Vendres Commune, France

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 178 km SE of Hihifo, Tonga

    13 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Demopolis, AL Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mandeville--Covington, LA Region, United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Nepal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bhutan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bekasi City, West Java, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Indragiri Hulu Regency, Riau, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sijunjung Regency, West Sumatra, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 72 km ESE of Amahai, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Rioja, Spain

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Guyana

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Guyana

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Western France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Eastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Spain

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - northern Qinghai, China

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Thailand

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme heat - Hong Kong

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Japan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nyiragongo, DR Congo

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Bagana, Papua New Guinea

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    10 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
May 30, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04W is located approximately 698 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 02E is located approximately 535 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico

 

Eastern north Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 02E

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/07/1800x1080.jpg

What the computer models are showing

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A gradual reduction in forward speed is forecast by mid-week.

On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone should remain well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm overnight.

>>> Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains disorganized.

The system is forecast to move generally westward at 5 to 10 mph into a drier and more stable airmass during the next couple of days with little, if any, further development expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

 

Tropical Cyclone 04W

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/04W_310000sair.jpg

Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 6)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a deep consolidated central ball of convection wrapping around a low level circulation.

TS 04W remains in a favorable environment with fair westward and equatorward outflow, low (5-10kts) wind shear aloft, and very warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.

TS 04W will track more northwestward over the next 72 hours under the steering influence of the ridge. The system will gradually intensify under the aforementioned favorable conditions, and by 72 hours…will reach 60 knots.

Afterward, intensification will be more gradual as wind shear becomes more moderate (15-20 knots), and by 72 hours will reach 60 knots.

The favorable conditions will persist and intensify the cyclone slightly, to a peak intensity of 65 knots by 96 hours. Afterward, as it becomes exposed to increased poleward outflow, associated with the prevailing westerlies under the polar front jet, TS 04W will rapidly decay due to increasing wind shear to 45 knots by 120 hours.

 

 

IR Satellite Image

There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 445 NM southwest of Guam.

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals upper level turning and flaring convection without a discernible low level circulation center.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment for development characterized by low to moderate (10-20 knot) wind shear, equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models generally agree that invest 90W will lose strength as it propagates northwestward. HWRF indicates minor development over the next 48 hours and reaching warning criteria by 72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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